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Keeper Analysis

Kevin writes in asking for keeper help.  He is in a 5x5 roto league and is allowed ten keepers from the following:

Justin Duchscherer
Jorge Campillo
Aaron Harang
Ricky Nolasco
Manny Parra
Jered Weaver

Billy Wagner
Adam LaRoche
Adrian Gonzalez
Brandon Phillips
Miguel Cabrera
Troy Tulowitzki
Carlos Quentin
Curtis Granderson
Nate McLouth
Nick Markakis
Lastings Milledge
Victor Martinez
Jason Bay

Here's who I'm taking right off the bat: Markakis, Quentin, Cabrera, Gonzalez, McLouth and Phillips.  Those six are just no-brainers for me.  Quentin has been ridiculous, so even without more evidence I can't even consider excluding him.  I also love the well-rounded abilities of McLouth, so he's in even if it's only been one season.   Phillips is an easy choice even in an off-year.

The final four will come from the following: Harang, Duchscherer, Nolasco, Tulowitzki, Granderson, Martinez, and Bay.  Duchscherer looks pretty flukey, and I can't see him staying healthy next year.  Nolasco, while solid, is the type of pitcher you can typically find on the waiver wire.  Harang - question marks with health and performance after logging tons of innings in 2006-07.

So it looks like I'm keeping nothing but position players.  I am skeptical of Tulo, but I feel that he's worth hanging on to.  I think Martinez can come back healthy and Bay/Granderson will remain solid.   If I could trade an outfielder plus a pitcher for a catcher, middle infielder, or corner infielder, I'd look into it.  Or, perhaps an outfielder can be traded for a quality starter with no health questions, like James Shields.

Here's the lineup:

C -
C - Victor Martinez
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Miguel Cabrera
CI -
MI -
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Carlos Quentin
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Nate McLouth
DH -

If Cabrera's 14 games don't qualify him at third, he's the CI and you're in the market for a 3B.  Clearly the keepers I've chosen leave little outfield flexibility, so trading one for a starter should be explored.  As you can see, I just don't like keeping starters based on one good season.


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