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Innings Caps
Let's look at some starters and their possible innings caps this year. Who might be shut down early? We'll assume teams will be reluctant to extend their young starters more than 30 innings past the previous year's total. Of course, the rule may not apply to some of these pitchers. Greinke, for example, tossed 183 innings in '05 and may be able to handle that kind of workload.
Some of these pitchers will switch over to shutdown risks as the playoff picture clears up.
- Cole Hamels. Cap: 220. Pace: 230 plus playoffs.
- Jeremy Guthrie. Cap: 205.3. Pace: 221. Shutdown risk.
- Tim Lincecum. Cap: 207.3. Pace: 216. Shutdown risk.
- Ervin Santana. Cap: 214.3. Pace: 217 plus playoffs.
- Zack Greinke. Cap: 152. Pace: 204. Shutdown risk. I asked Royals beat writer Bob Dutton about this one, so we may have a more definitive answer soon.
- Jon Lester. Cap: 193. Pace: 203 plus playoffs.
- Paul Maholm. Cap: 207.6. Pace: 207.
- Ricky Nolasco. Cap: 85. Pace: 205 plus playoffs.
- Scott Olsen. Cap: 206.6. Pace: 198 plus playoffs.
- Ubaldo Jimenez. Cap: 215. Pace: 201.
- Joe Saunders. Cap: 223.6. Pace: 206 plus playoffs.
- Chad Billingsley. Cap: 177. Pace: 201 plus playoffs.
- Nick Blackburn. Cap: 178.6. Pace: 195 plus playoffs.
- Edinson Volquez. Cap: 208.6. Pace: 193.
- Jair Jurrjens. Cap: 173.3. Pace: 195. Shutdown risk.
- Gavin Floyd. Cap: 206.6. Pace: 194 plus playoffs.
- John Danks. Cap: 169. Pace: 190 plus playoffs.
- Jered Weaver. Cap: 207. Pace: 184 plus playoffs.
- Johnny Cueto. Cap: 191.3. Pace: 188.
- Brian Bannister. Cap: 215.6. Pace: 187.
- Greg Smith. Cap: 152. Pace: 187. Shutdown risk.
- Mike Pelfrey. Cap: 182.6. Pace: 187 plus playoffs.
- Zach Duke. Cap: 153.3. Pace: 184. Shutdown risk.
- Dana Eveland. Cap: 67.6. Pace: 182. Shutdown risk.
- John Lannan. Cap: 189.3. Pace: 184.
- Edwin Jackson. Cap: 191. Pace: 184 plus playoffs.
- Matt Garza. Cap: 205. Pace: 190 plus playoffs.
- Jonathan Sanchez. Cap: 105.6. Pace: 179. Shutdown risk.
- Todd Wellemeyer. Cap: 110.3. Pace: 186 plus playoffs.
- Manny Parra. Cap: 163. Pace: 175 plus playoffs.
- Shaun Marcum. Cap: 189. Pace: 180.
- Armando Galarraga. Cap: 191. Pace: 186 plus playoffs.
- Luke Hochevar. Cap: 194.6. Pace: 170.
- Joba Chamberlain. Cap: 146. Pace: 139 plus playoffs.
- Clay Buchholz. Cap: 178. Pace: 160 plus playoffs.
- Sean Gallagher. Cap: 146.3. Pace: 165. Shutdown risk.
- Clayton Kershaw. Cap: 152. Pace: 164 plus playoffs.
- Scott Kazmir. Cap: 236.6 . Pace: 171 plus playoffs.
- Wandy Rodriguez. Cap: 212.6. Pace: 156.
- Rich Harden. Cap: 56.6. Pace: 171 plus playoffs.
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Similar to Greinke, Danks also had his highest inning total in 05 between A and AA when he threw 156. I must say, Ozzie's done a great job this year with the way he's handled Danks and his pitch counts. I wouldn't be shocked to see him get close to 185, which would be a 50 inning increase over last year, but still only 30 more than his previous high.
Posted by: ftheyankees | August 04, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Great list - lots of fantasy baseball implications for me.
Posted by: J | August 04, 2008 at 01:24 PM
Wow, great post, thanks! Now actively using it (side by side with your BABIP column) to evaluate trades for SP.
Posted by: hegotgame | August 05, 2008 at 08:48 AM
Lester isn't working against an innings limit this season. The Red Sox had a shorter spring training due to the Japan trip (and they kept him on a fairly strict pitch count early in the season). Also, to offset his workload, they gave Lester more time off between starts built around the All-Star break (12 days rest between starts). The Red Sox wouldn't ride him harder than they have to but there isn't an innings cap in place for him.
(I really like this article but I figured I'd point that bit out on Lester. Also, with the way Buchholz is pitching, there is no need to worry about the plus playoffs part with him; he'll probably be shut down by the end of the season.)
Posted by: TNS | August 05, 2008 at 10:58 PM