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Next Year's First Round
What will the average first round look like in 2009 drafts? To review, here's how it often played out in March of '08:
- Alex Rodriguez
- Hanley Ramirez
- David Wright
- Jose Reyes
- Matt Holliday
- Jimmy Rollins
- Miguel Cabrera
- Chase Utley
- Ryan Howard
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- Ryan Braun
- Eight players will probably remain in the top 12: A-Rod, Hanley, Wright, Reyes, Holliday, Utley, Pujols, and Braun.
- Rollins, Cabrera, Howard, and Fielder are out on account of their less-than-amazing seasons.
- Howard should finish with 40 HR and 125 ribbies, but the .240 AVG will be hard for drafters to ignore. He'd have to crank that up to at least the .260s to sniff the first round again.
- Based on reasonable preseason rankings, Fielder never belonged in the first round.
- Cabrera didn't really hit his stride until July. I could see him surging to finish close to last year's .320-34-119-91-2. But like Howard, perception of his slow start may push him out of the first round.
- Lance Berkman could be a new addition, on account of a .340 AVG, 120 runs, and 20 steals. Can he repeat any of those numbers though?
- Will Ian Kinsler be 2009's Rollins? Will Josh Hamilton get in with a 135 RBI season? Other candidates to sneak in: Grady Sizemore, Brandon Webb.
My projected first round for 2009:
- Hanley Ramirez
- Alex Rodriguez
- David Wright
- Jose Reyes
- Chase Utley
- Ryan Braun
- Albert Pujols
- Matt Holliday
- Ian Kinsler
- Lance Berkman
- Josh Hamilton
- Brandon Webb
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Tim,
what do you think of Paul Maholm? Is he worth a pickup? Would you take him over Clay Bucholz?
Posted by: agarthered | July 28, 2008 at 04:04 PM
With emergence of Ankiel and Ludwick not to mention the speedy Rasmus coming up i think id want Pujuls 3rd. The consistency he brings is worth something to me. Reyes and Utley are 4-5 in my book considering position although its really close 4-8 with Sizemore and Wright next. Wright's position drops him a bit for me. 9. Holliday 10. Braun 11. Berkman 12. Kinsler 13. Hamilton 14. Howard 15. Phillips 16. Carlos Lee 17. Cabrera 18. Beltran 19. Quentin 20. Mclouth 21. Santana 22. Peavy 23. Fielder 24. Crawford 25. Webb
Posted by: trek81 | July 28, 2008 at 04:15 PM
Braun ahead of Pujols??? I love your work Tim, but that's just silly. A healthy Albert Pujols is undoubtedly a top 5 fantasy player. We're talking about the closest thing to Ted Williams in the game today.
Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | July 28, 2008 at 04:26 PM
Also, let's not get carried away with four months of stats. In the first round, it's all about reliability. You have to select a guy with a stable skill set and virtually no injury risk. Are you honestly telling me you'd select Kinsler or Hamilton in the first round? You can't win your draft in the first round, but you sure can lose it. Miggy, Johan, Crawford, Carlos Lee, J-Roll, and Teixeira all make for better picks at that stage in the draft than huge risks like Hamilton and Kinsler. Fantasy is a game of percentages. In the long run, you'll lose by embracing risk in the first round.
Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | July 28, 2008 at 04:40 PM
This isn't a ranking of projected fantasy value. It is a ranking of how I think the general public will draft. Personally I would never pick a guy like Hamilton in the first round.
Anyway Pujols being roughly the 15th best fantasy player this year and with the elbow issue remaining, I would be surprised to see him go more than a couple picks ahead of that, on average. Of course there is a lot of baseball left to play that could change that.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 28, 2008 at 04:48 PM
Got it, Tim
Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | July 28, 2008 at 04:54 PM
Sizemore should EASILY be a 1st rounder next year... Webb would be a waste.. there's too little separation between the top 10 starters... if there were dominant SPs again like in the days of Randy Johnson, Pedro, and Schilling, or even Johan circa 2 years ago... but there just hasn't been that stud SP worth splurging for in the 1st.. meanwhile Grady does it all
Posted by: rpg006 | July 28, 2008 at 06:52 PM
Evan Longoria's gotta be in there. No doubt I'd take him before Lance Berkman. Longoria's the Braun of '09: you know pre-draft that this will be the last time he'll be available by pick no. 10.
Posted by: DSteckel | July 28, 2008 at 09:18 PM
No he's not... Braun is special... I saw that last year... you could tell he was a legit 1st rounder right away... and he can steal too.. Braun is a superstar, Longoria is a 3rd rounder next year... maybe 2nd if he really turns it up.. I'd take Berkman, especially with his dual 1B/OF eligibility (if he still has it), another thing Braun has this year as well
Posted by: rpg006 | July 28, 2008 at 11:50 PM
webb? no way, he's been coming back down to earth after his amazingly lucky start.
Posted by: frankie | July 29, 2008 at 03:04 AM
if you're going to put any pitcher up there, which you shouldn't, it should be Peavy
Posted by: rpg006 | July 29, 2008 at 08:06 AM
I guess Webb's 2.91 ERA this month could be considering coming back down to earth...
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 29, 2008 at 09:01 AM
My 2009 team in my keeper league will have ARod, Hamilton, Sizemore, McLouth with the equivalent of 19th, 20th, 80th, and 160th picks (20 teamer) :-)
(of course, the rest of the first 200 picks are going to be garbage for me).
Posted by: V | July 29, 2008 at 09:04 AM
I love how no one respects Webb. I'm not saying I'd take him in the 1st round, but while everyone says how much pitchers fluctuate from year to year, he's been money in the bank the last 4 years. There's nothing "lucky" about it.
Also, when Sizemore ends up with a 40-40 year, I don't see him lasting until round 2.
Posted by: fmluder | July 30, 2008 at 02:53 PM
I don't think you understand what I'm saying. I'm not disrespecting Webb or saying he's doing poor lately.. but can you honestly tell me there's that big of a positive difference between Webb and Johan, or Webb and Peavy... or even Kazmir, Hamels, Verlander, Lincecum, Haren, Halladay, Sabathia? I don't think he's even the best of that group.. and if he is, it isn't by a discernible amount... that's what I'm saying. I take a hitter and see which pitchers fall in the 3rd/4th round (15 team league) maybe 5th round in a 10 team league...
Posted by: rpg006 | July 30, 2008 at 08:24 PM
Longoria is a 3rd rounder next year... maybe 2nd if he really turns it up..
one way to move up quickly would be for him to get SS eligibility for next year. his 1st half numbers doubled 30hrs 100rbis .275 with upside easily move him up to the beginning of the 2nd round.
Posted by: jg | August 04, 2008 at 12:01 PM