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Next Year's First Round

What will the average first round look like in 2009 drafts?  To review, here's how it often played out in March of '08:

  1. Alex Rodriguez
  2. Hanley Ramirez
  3. David Wright
  4. Jose Reyes
  5. Matt Holliday
  6. Jimmy Rollins
  7. Miguel Cabrera
  8. Chase Utley
  9. Ryan Howard
  10. Albert Pujols
  11. Prince Fielder
  12. Ryan Braun
  • Eight players will probably remain in the top 12: A-Rod, Hanley, Wright, Reyes, Holliday, Utley, Pujols, and Braun.
  • Rollins, Cabrera, Howard, and Fielder are out on account of their less-than-amazing seasons. 
  • Howard should finish with 40 HR and 125 ribbies, but the .240 AVG will be hard for drafters to ignore.  He'd have to crank that up to at least the .260s to sniff the first round again.
  • Based on reasonable preseason rankings, Fielder never belonged in the first round.
  • Cabrera didn't really hit his stride until July.  I could see him surging to finish close to last year's .320-34-119-91-2.  But like Howard, perception of his slow start may push him out of the first round.
  • Lance Berkman could be a new addition, on account of a .340 AVG, 120 runs, and 20 steals.  Can he repeat any of those numbers though?
  • Will Ian Kinsler be 2009's Rollins?  Will Josh Hamilton get in with a 135 RBI season?  Other candidates to sneak in: Grady Sizemore, Brandon Webb.

My projected first round for 2009:

  1. Hanley Ramirez
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. David Wright
  4. Jose Reyes
  5. Chase Utley
  6. Ryan Braun
  7. Albert Pujols
  8. Matt Holliday
  9. Ian Kinsler
  10. Lance Berkman
  11. Josh Hamilton
  12. Brandon Webb

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