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Johnny Cueto = Next Year's Lincecum?
Johnny Cueto is a dead ringer for Tim Lincecum. Let me count the ways:
- Under six feet tall
- Average fastball over 93 mph
- Burst on the scene with much fantasy and real-life fanfare, and then were somewhat forgotten
- Play for smaller-market teams
- Rookie ERA of 4+
- Strong rookie strikeout rate but less than ideal control
Lincecum was being picked 121st on average in March of this year. That's the 11th round, right around James Shields, Rich Hill, and Brad Penny. That's what happens with a promising arm coming off a good but not great season (with the exception of Felix Hernandez, who still went in the 8th).
CHONE, ZiPS, and RotoAuthority implored you to pick Lincecum, projecting a sub-3.30 ERA with tons of strikeouts. I wouldn't go that far with Cueto, who plays in a tougher ballpark and has struggled with the longball. However, Cueto's 16.0% HR per flyball rate is bound to come down. We thought the same about Felix Hernandez, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe last year and did they indeed regress to normal rates in '08. Plus, Cueto has better rookie-year control than Lincecum did.
Cueto pitched 161.3 innings in '07, so hopefully Dusty Baker cuts him off before 190 this year. That shouldn't be a problem; even 190 innings might mean 33 starts for Cueto.
I'd like to start up the Johnny Cueto Bandwagon for 2009. This is a guy you can probably get in the 10th round, where many interesting starters reside every year.
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As a Cueto owner, I'd love to agree with you that he's the next Lincecum... but c'mon - there isn't anyone in college, let alone the minors who can be compared to Lincecum.
Maybe Rich Hill, pre control problems, would be a better comparison? Lots of potential, great K rate, some minor issues they should develop through...
Posted by: dtolman | July 24, 2008 at 09:34 PM
I just like the general profile of Cueto and Lincecum...hype died down when they weren't aces as rookies. But the stuff and peripherals were there and just needed refining.
Rich Hill basically just has an awesome curveball that he spots with an OK fastball. If he's not commanding both he has problems. He is a lot different than a flamethrowing young righty, to me.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 25, 2008 at 12:38 AM
Also Rich Hill broke in when he was 25 and only pitched 24 innings. Lincecum was 23 last year, and Cueto is 22 this year. From a development standpoint, Cueto is right where Lincecum was in 2006. You have to think if Tim would have been able to post Cueto numbers in 2006 at the major league level. He might have, but its hard to judge.
Posted by: Mark | July 25, 2008 at 01:36 AM
Biggest difference between the two:
Lincecum's 2007 GB%- 47%
Cueto's 2008 GB%- 38%
Cueto will always struggle with HRs unless he could figure out how to induce more grounders. Also, given the 2 parks they play in are at the opposite ends of the extremes, Lincecum could sustain a below league average HR/F, whereas Cueto's might always be above league average.
Posted by: mkooljr1 | July 25, 2008 at 08:28 AM
I don't remember any dying-down of the Lincecum hype. Maybe in Yahoo leagues or something, but he was the one guy every owner in my NL league wanted from me this past offseason.
Posted by: bobo | July 25, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Maybe for keeper leagues, Bobo, but in 1 year leagues he was being outright dropped after he struggled a bit last season, much like Cueto this year.
Obviously in keeper leagues, they showed enough to be immensely valuable.
Posted by: Pawtucket Pat | July 25, 2008 at 10:52 AM
do u think lincecum could keep up his stats for the rest of the year? pitcvhing much more innings then he did last year?
Posted by: jerseyballer | July 25, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Just that Lincecum averaged a 121st pick is enough to say hype died down a lot.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 25, 2008 at 12:43 PM
There's something you're missing here. The innings pitched aren't what counts. Who cares if he throws 191 innings or 250? It's the number of pitches he throws in the season and he is on pace to screw his arm up with the total pitches increase. I wouldn't want him in a keeper league for that reason alone.
Posted by: finite24 | July 25, 2008 at 06:44 PM
Assuming the 33 starts (somewhat conservative projection), he's on pace to throw nearly 3300 IP in the majors in his rookie season. Considering his violent arm action and lack of Lincecum like mechanics, I'll be steering clear.
Posted by: finite24 | July 25, 2008 at 07:02 PM