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Expected Wins
Once again, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' "expected wins" stat. The RS column refers to the pitcher's run support ranking among those with 80 IP, out of 129 pitchers.
First, the hard luck pitchers:
| NAME | W | E(W) | Diff | RS |
| Greg Maddux | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 | 121 |
| Jason Bergmann | 1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 129 |
| Aaron Harang | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 128 |
| Matt Cain | 6 | 9.0 | -3.0 | 124 |
| Greg Smith | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | 125 |
| Jarrod Washburn | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | 102 |
| Zach Duke | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 78 |
| Shawn Chacon | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 87 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 114 |
| Shaun Marcum | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 106 |
| Brett Myers | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 81 |
| Oliver Perez | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 31 |
| Adam Eaton | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 116 |
| Odalis Perez | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 84 |
| Edwin Jackson | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 38 |
| Joel Pineiro | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 96 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 88 |
| John Danks | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 111 |
| John Lannan | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 126 |
| Tim Wakefield | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 82 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 105 |
Perez and Jackson can't complain about run support, but they still got the shaft. The Nationals are represented three times, so that should tell you something. Still, Tim Redding has been immune. Odd to see two Phillies on the list, isn't it? Strong offense, good bullpen.
Next up, the lucky ones:
| NAME | W | E(W) | Diff | RS |
| Mike Mussina | 13 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 51 |
| Vicente Padilla | 11 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 6 |
| Brandon Webb | 13 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 70 |
| Livan Hernandez | 10 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 5 |
| Andrew Sonnanstine | 10 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 50 |
| Gavin Floyd | 10 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 14 |
| Joe Saunders | 12 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 111 |
| A.J. Burnett | 11 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 64 |
| Andy Pettitte | 11 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 42 |
| Ted Lilly | 10 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 30 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 8 |
| Mark Hendrickson | 7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 83 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 11 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 34 |
| Aaron Cook | 12 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 57 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 10 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 45 |
| John Maine | 9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 7 |
| Edinson Volquez | 12 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 28 |
| Cliff Lee | 13 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 26 |
| Kyle Lohse | 12 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 48 |
| Josh Beckett | 9 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 11 |
| Kyle Kendrick | 8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 11 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 18 |
Some of these guys will win 17, 18 games and have inflated draft positions in '09. In general it's nice to pitch for the Red Sox, though don't tell that to Wakefield. If the Rangers had any halfway decent pitching we'd see more than Padilla on this list.
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