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Expected Wins

Once again, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' "expected wins" stat.  The RS column refers to the pitcher's run support ranking among those with 80 IP, out of 129 pitchers.

First, the hard luck pitchers:

NAME W E(W) Diff RS
Greg Maddux 3 7.5 -4.5 121
Jason Bergmann 1 5.1 -4.1 129
Aaron Harang 3 6.1 -3.1 128
Matt Cain 6 9.0 -3.0 124
Greg Smith 5 8.0 -3.0 125
Jarrod Washburn 4 6.9 -2.9 102
Zach Duke 4 6.8 -2.8 78
Shawn Chacon 2 4.8 -2.8 87
Jeremy Guthrie 6 8.5 -2.5 114
Shaun Marcum 5 7.5 -2.5 106
Brett Myers 3 5.5 -2.5 81
Oliver Perez 6 8.3 -2.3 31
Adam Eaton 3 5.3 -2.3 116
Odalis Perez 3 5.3 -2.3 84
Edwin Jackson 5 7.2 -2.2 38
Joel Pineiro 3 5.2 -2.2 96
C.C. Sabathia 6 8.2 -2.2 88
John Danks 7 9.1 -2.1 111
John Lannan 6 8.0 -2.0 126
Tim Wakefield 6 8.0 -2.0 82
Ubaldo Jimenez 6 8.0 -2.0 105

Perez and Jackson can't complain about run support, but they still got the shaft.  The Nationals are represented three times, so that should tell you something.  Still, Tim Redding has been immune.  Odd to see two Phillies on the list, isn't it?  Strong offense, good bullpen.

Next up, the lucky ones:

NAME W E(W) Diff RS
Mike Mussina 13 8.6 4.4 51
Vicente Padilla 11 6.6 4.4 6
Brandon Webb 13 9.3 3.7 70
Livan Hernandez 10 6.6 3.4 5
Andrew Sonnanstine 10 6.8 3.2 50
Gavin Floyd 10 6.8 3.2 14
Joe Saunders 12 8.9 3.1 111
A.J. Burnett 11 8.0 3.0 64
Andy Pettitte 11 8.1 2.9 42
Ted Lilly 10 7.1 2.9 30
Bronson Arroyo 9 6.3 2.7 8
Mark Hendrickson 7 4.3 2.7 83
Daisuke Matsuzaka 11 8.3 2.7 34
Aaron Cook 12 9.5 2.5 57
Ricky Nolasco 10 7.5 2.5 45
John Maine 9 6.5 2.5 7
Edinson Volquez 12 9.6 2.4 28
Cliff Lee 13 10.7 2.3 26
Kyle Lohse 12 9.7 2.3 48
Josh Beckett 9 6.9 2.1 11
Kyle Kendrick 8 5.9 2.1 1
Carlos Zambrano 11 9.0 2.0 18

Some of these guys will win 17, 18 games and have inflated draft positions in '09.  In general it's nice to pitch for the Red Sox, though don't tell that to Wakefield.  If the Rangers had any halfway decent pitching we'd see more than Padilla on this list.


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