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Will You Give The Man His PrOPS?
Today's guest article is by Mike Podhorzer of The Fantasy Baseball Generals.
PrOPS, or predicted OPS, is a stat that really hasn’t generated that much discussion, at least not that I’ve seen. It was developed by JC Bradbury and you could read all about it in this introductory article. Today I’ll be looking at those players with the biggest difference between their PrOPS and actual OPS. First up are the players whose actual OPS exceeds their PrOPS by the most, which might suggest that they have been lucky, or their actual OPS could be expected to decline going forward.
Player |
PrAVE |
PrSLG |
PrOBP |
PrOPS |
OPS |
OPS-PrOPS | |
Lance |
Berkman |
0.300 |
0.590 |
0.394 |
0.984 |
1.137 |
0.153 |
Fred |
Lewis |
0.257 |
0.393 |
0.334 |
0.727 |
0.823 |
0.095 |
Johnny |
Damon |
0.291 |
0.426 |
0.361 |
0.787 |
0.881 |
0.094 |
Dan |
Uggla |
0.263 |
0.585 |
0.348 |
0.932 |
1.026 |
0.093 |
Matt |
Holliday |
0.296 |
0.469 |
0.379 |
0.849 |
0.931 |
0.082 |
Alex |
Rodriguez |
0.300 |
0.575 |
0.384 |
0.959 |
1.035 |
0.077 |
Joe |
Mauer |
0.299 |
0.395 |
0.391 |
0.786 |
0.861 |
0.075 |
Kevin |
Youkilis |
0.274 |
0.471 |
0.350 |
0.821 |
0.896 |
0.075 |
Carlos |
Gomez |
0.231 |
0.346 |
0.267 |
0.613 |
0.687 |
0.074 |
James |
Loney |
0.281 |
0.415 |
0.343 |
0.758 |
0.832 |
0.073 |
Lance Berkman is already cooling off so the window to sell extremely high is closing. However, there really aren’t too many players you could be sure would outperform him, so holding tight is probably the best move. Johnny Damon is sporting a .362 BABIP, which should regress toward his career .311 mark, bringing down his actual OPS more in-line with his PrOPS. Dan Uggla has been discussed many times on the Generals blog, but he just keeps hitting HRs, making us look foolish. I’d still look to trade him. Carlos Gomez has a .304 OBP, thanks to a putrid 3.9% BB%, and yet continues to be trotted out into the leadoff slot on a daily basis. It’s scary to think that PrOPS believes he’s actually been lucky this year, even though his actual OPS is only .613! I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets sent down sometime this year if he falls into another extended slump. He has also only been successful 69% of the time stealing bases, which has been his biggest contribution to fantasy teams thus far. He could become a 0-category fantasy player if he starts getting the red light.
Now let’s take a look at the players who are underperforming their PrOPS.
Player |
PrAVE |
PrSLG |
PrOBP |
PrOPS |
OPS |
OPS-PrOPS | |
Nick T |
Swisher |
0.287 |
0.460 |
0.393 |
0.853 |
0.741 |
-0.112 |
Robinson |
Cano |
0.283 |
0.392 |
0.322 |
0.715 |
0.600 |
-0.114 |
Ryan J |
Howard |
0.272 |
0.545 |
0.362 |
0.908 |
0.788 |
-0.120 |
Adrian |
Beltre |
0.293 |
0.519 |
0.359 |
0.878 |
0.753 |
-0.125 |
Jack |
Cust |
0.290 |
0.526 |
0.442 |
0.968 |
0.837 |
-0.131 |
Adam |
Dunn |
0.278 |
0.589 |
0.431 |
1.020 |
0.879 |
-0.141 |
Marco |
Scutaro |
0.302 |
0.409 |
0.390 |
0.799 |
0.657 |
-0.142 |
Jose |
Vidro |
0.282 |
0.419 |
0.322 |
0.741 |
0.587 |
-0.154 |
Freddy |
Sanchez |
0.297 |
0.410 |
0.324 |
0.734 |
0.575 |
-0.159 |
Paul |
Konerko |
0.288 |
0.465 |
0.386 |
0.850 |
0.691 |
-0.160 |
Nick Swisher is looking like a great trade target. He’s been hitting better of late, but he has still been underperforming and it shouldn’t take much to acquire him. He’d been an even better bet going forward if he could ever move back up in the lineup, maybe into the 2nd slot where A.J. Pierzynski has somehow staked his claim. I still stand by my article several weeks ago analyzing Robinson Cano, where I determined that most of his slow start has just been bad luck. PrOPS agrees, and luckily he still hasn’t gotten hot, giving non-owners an opportunity to trade for him. Adam Dunn looks like a nice target as he’s slumped of late and Dusty has continued to make sure his lineups make absolutely no sense, dropping Dunn now to 6th in the order. His owner might be sick and tired of his .220 average, but he’s walking at the highest rate of his career and his HR/F ratio is the 2nd highest of his career. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish the year with a career high OPS. I’m embarrassed to admit that Paul Konerko is my favorite player as he’s off to a horrific start, and injuries certainly haven’t helped his cause. Hopefully PrOPS is right that it’s just been bad luck, as he obviously has the track record to suggest it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting. You might be able to acquire him for peanuts at this point.
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I just don't understand how your formula comes up with these numbers. Beltre's PrOPS is .878, despite the fact that his career OPS is .784, and he's only exceeded .878 once (during his completely flukey 2004 season)? Why would your formula predict such a large upswing? And why would it say that Ryan Howard's PrOPS was .908 when his first 2 seasons were .976 or better, and Howard's only 27 years old?
Posted by: metafrantic | June 24, 2008 at 11:07 AM
Thanks for the comment metafrantic. I didn't come up with the formula though, as I said at the beginning of the article, JC Bradbury did. Click the link to read how he came up with it, there were a bunch of metrics he used to develop it.
Posted by: mkooljr1 | June 24, 2008 at 01:04 PM
Another thing to keep in mind is PrOPS ONLY looks at this year's performance. Think of it the same way as the FIP or xFIP calculations at The Hardball Times, which only use data from this year.
PrOPS is the same way in that it attempts to tell us what a player's OPS "should" be based on what he's done so far this year.
Posted by: mkooljr1 | June 24, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Sorry, I missed that link the first time.
PrOPS sounds like a more sophisticated version of BABIP. It seems like PrOPS is based on a very small sample size, though.
Bradbury didn't say whether the formula compares a player's factors from the current year to previous years; so a player's numbers (BB rate, K rate, etc.) could be dramatically different from the year before, but it sounds like the formula assumes that those numbers will hold steady for the player, and a correction will occur. Isn't it possible that a player's numbers could revert to career norms before (or after) a "luck" correction occurs?
Posted by: metafrantic | June 25, 2008 at 08:14 AM
That's true, metafrantic, but the same could be said about FIP and xFIP as well. These metrics are useful in that they translate a player's core performance (i.e., Ks, BBs, HRs, LDs for hitters) into results (OPS) in a way that minimizes the effect of luck. Sure a player could go through a hot streak in which his core performance is temporarily out of line with his career norms, but it's still useful to distinguish that kind of hot streak from the kind that just involves lucky hits falling in.
Posted by: NadavT | June 25, 2008 at 09:14 AM
Okay, I agree with that; I can see the difference and the value. I'm still wondering what kind of sample size would be large enough to give a reasonable estimate, though (although you could ask the same question about any stat). Bradley did say that, when applied to 1/5 of the 2005 season, "it's much less likely that good and bad bounces have had time to even out." Is a bit less than half a season enough to indicate a real pattern?
Posted by: metafrantic | June 25, 2008 at 01:48 PM