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Will You Give The Man His PrOPS?

Today's guest article is by Mike Podhorzer of The Fantasy Baseball Generals.

PrOPS, or predicted OPS, is a stat that really hasn’t generated that much discussion, at least not that I’ve seen. It was developed by JC Bradbury and you could read all about it in this introductory article. Today I’ll be looking at those players with the biggest difference between their PrOPS and actual OPS. First up are the players whose actual OPS exceeds their PrOPS by the most, which might suggest that they have been lucky, or their actual OPS could be expected to decline going forward.

Player

PrAVE

PrSLG

PrOBP

PrOPS

OPS

OPS-PrOPS

Lance

Berkman

0.300

0.590

0.394

0.984

1.137

0.153

Fred

Lewis

0.257

0.393

0.334

0.727

0.823

0.095

Johnny

Damon

0.291

0.426

0.361

0.787

0.881

0.094

Dan

Uggla

0.263

0.585

0.348

0.932

1.026

0.093

Matt

Holliday

0.296

0.469

0.379

0.849

0.931

0.082

Alex

Rodriguez

0.300

0.575

0.384

0.959

1.035

0.077

Joe

Mauer

0.299

0.395

0.391

0.786

0.861

0.075

Kevin

Youkilis

0.274

0.471

0.350

0.821

0.896

0.075

Carlos

Gomez

0.231

0.346

0.267

0.613

0.687

0.074

James

Loney

0.281

0.415

0.343

0.758

0.832

0.073

Lance Berkman is already cooling off so the window to sell extremely high is closing. However, there really aren’t too many players you could be sure would outperform him, so holding tight is probably the best move. Johnny Damon is sporting a .362 BABIP, which should regress toward his career .311 mark, bringing down his actual OPS more in-line with his PrOPS. Dan Uggla has been discussed many times on the Generals blog, but he just keeps hitting HRs, making us look foolish. I’d still look to trade him. Carlos Gomez has a .304 OBP, thanks to a putrid 3.9% BB%, and yet continues to be trotted out into the leadoff slot on a daily basis. It’s scary to think that PrOPS believes he’s actually been lucky this year, even though his actual OPS is only .613! I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets sent down sometime this year if he falls into another extended slump. He has also only been successful 69% of the time stealing bases, which has been his biggest contribution to fantasy teams thus far. He could become a 0-category fantasy player if he starts getting the red light.

Now let’s take a look at the players who are underperforming their PrOPS.

Player

PrAVE

PrSLG

PrOBP

PrOPS

OPS

OPS-PrOPS

Nick T

Swisher

0.287

0.460

0.393

0.853

0.741

-0.112

Robinson

Cano

0.283

0.392

0.322

0.715

0.600

-0.114

Ryan J

Howard

0.272

0.545

0.362

0.908

0.788

-0.120

Adrian

Beltre

0.293

0.519

0.359

0.878

0.753

-0.125

Jack

Cust

0.290

0.526

0.442

0.968

0.837

-0.131

Adam

Dunn

0.278

0.589

0.431

1.020

0.879

-0.141

Marco

Scutaro

0.302

0.409

0.390

0.799

0.657

-0.142

Jose

Vidro

0.282

0.419

0.322

0.741

0.587

-0.154

Freddy

Sanchez

0.297

0.410

0.324

0.734

0.575

-0.159

Paul

Konerko

0.288

0.465

0.386

0.850

0.691

-0.160

Nick Swisher is looking like a great trade target. He’s been hitting better of late, but he has still been underperforming and it shouldn’t take much to acquire him. He’d been an even better bet going forward if he could ever move back up in the lineup, maybe into the 2nd slot where A.J. Pierzynski has somehow staked his claim. I still stand by my article several weeks ago analyzing Robinson Cano, where I determined that most of his slow start has just been bad luck. PrOPS agrees, and luckily he still hasn’t gotten hot, giving non-owners an opportunity to trade for him. Adam Dunn looks like a nice target as he’s slumped of late and Dusty has continued to make sure his lineups make absolutely no sense, dropping Dunn now to 6th in the order. His owner might be sick and tired of his .220 average, but he’s walking at the highest rate of his career and his HR/F ratio is the 2nd highest of his career. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish the year with a career high OPS. I’m embarrassed to admit that Paul Konerko is my favorite player as he’s off to a horrific start, and injuries certainly haven’t helped his cause. Hopefully PrOPS is right that it’s just been bad luck, as he obviously has the track record to suggest it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting. You might be able to acquire him for peanuts at this point.


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