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Looking For Wins?
Today's guest article is by Brett Greenfield of Fantasy Phenoms.
Wins may just be the most arbitrary stat in a standard 5x5 rotisserie league. Many are under the impression that having pitchers on winning teams nets you wins.
That is far from the case.
Take the Cubs last year, an 85 win team. Ted Lilly tossed 207 innings of 3.83 ERA ball. Teammate Rich Hill tossed 195 innings of 3.92 ERA ball. Very similar, right?
Lilly finished with 15 wins and Hill with only 11. Why? Something called run support (RS). If James Shields, for example, pitches on a day where the Rays score four runs, then his RS for that day was four.
Lilly ranked 23rd in the RS in the majors last year. That means that his offense behind him scored enough runs each time he started to rank him 23rd in that area. Hill, who plays behind the same offense as Lilly, was given the 129th highest RS in the majors.
How’s that possible? Wins are just that unpredictable.
Check out these two lines from 2007:
Kelvim Escobar 3.41 ERA 1.27 WHIP 6.43 RS 18W 7L
Matt Cain 3.65 ERA 1.26 WHIP 3.51 RS 7W 16L
Isn’t it amazing how two pitchers can pitch equally as effective as one another, yet whether or not they get a win depends on the amount of runs scored by their offense?
Those of you looking for wins shouldn’t be looking towards teams who have the most wins in 2008, but rather those who have the most run support. Otherwise, how else can we explain Tim Lincecum having eight wins already?
The top 5 in RS are as follows…
1. Kyle Kendrick – 8.39
2. Oliver Perez – 7.47
3. Justin Duchscherer – 7.40
4. Vicente Padilla – 7.07
5. Jamie Moyer – 7.06
Kendrick, despite a 4.54 ERA, has won six of his 14 starts. Perez has an ERA just under 5.00 yet has won five times. Duchscherer has won seven of his 11 starts this year. Padilla has won nine of his 15 starts. Moyer has won almost half of his starts despite a 4.09 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.
Mike Pelfrey, a teammate of Oliver Perez, boasts a 3-6 record despite a lower ERA than Perez. His RS is ranked 73rd in the majors at 4.62.
The bottom 5 in RS are as follows…
1. John Lannan – 2.39
2. Paul Byrd – 2.78
3. Aaron Harang – 2.85
4. Ubaldo Jimenez – 2.98
5. Erik Bedard – 3.34
Lannan sports a 3.38 ERA yet has won only four times. Byrd has three wins on the year. Harang is 3-9 on the season despite a 1.28 WHIP. Jimenez is 1-7 so far this year, although he hasn’t pitched overly well. Bedard has only four wins on the year in 12 starts.
While these unlucky few have gotten little run support and have had little chance at getting any wins, their teammates, who have the same group of hitters behind them, have fared amazingly well.
Cliff Lee, teammate of Byrd, has the 18th highest RS in the majors. Byrd is 115th. Edinson Volquez ranks 25th while teammate Harang ranks 114th.
Tim Redding of the Nationals ranks 22nd while teammate Lannan ranks 116th.
Wins is the most arbitrary and unpredictable stat in a standard 5x5 rotisserie league. If you are going to seek out pitchers in search of wins, the best you can do is look at their RS.
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Is Run Support predictive at all? Seems an exceptionally fluky stat. Sorta like targetting a pitcher BECAUSE he has a low BABIP.
Posted by: V | June 19, 2008 at 10:02 AM
"If you are going to seek out pitchers in search of wins, the best you can do is look at their RS."
i agree with V, this is a highly unpredictable stat and not really worth looking at. as you argued in your piece, run support varies from pitcher to pitcher on the same team! how on earth is this valuable.
for example, your escobar vs. cain comparison - you neglected to mention that escobar's team won 94 games, while cain's won 71.
i've always believed that a good team with a good bullpen is just as valuable as run support in terms of getting pitchers wins. run support is important, yes, but you have to look at the whole picture when evaluating starting pitchers.
Posted by: MO Boiler | June 19, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Along these same lines, wouldn't it stand to reason that one should TARGET a pitcher like Aaron Harang, who has had little run support so far despite pitching for a not-terrible offensive team? Unless there's some good reason to believe that a team will continue to score more (or fewer) runs when a particular pitcher is pitching, most likely things will even out over the long haul.
Conversely, guys who have racked up wins because of abnormally high run support would seem like obvious sell-high candidates.
Posted by: abstractpoet | June 19, 2008 at 09:46 PM
Weak article.
Posted by: walkoffblast | June 19, 2008 at 11:53 PM
I believe that the SAVE is the most arbitrary stat in all of sports. Well, I'm not really qualified to say that, but I'd say in all of baseball at least.
Posted by: biggietg | June 20, 2008 at 12:08 PM
You should never look at RS for a pitcher. That could change game to game. At the end of the year it makes a good review for why someone didn't get enough wins, but you can't make decisions on it. I would suggest looking at a teams runs per game instead which takes into account every game for a larger sample size.
Posted by: Trizza | June 20, 2008 at 02:25 PM
sorry brett greenfield, but that was the worst article i've read on this blog, and i got enough laughs from the onion article so i certainly wont be clicking the link to your site
the next "I Disagree with Tim on..." article should be title "I Disagree with Tim for Posting Brett Greenfeld on RotoAuthority"
ripping greenfeld aside, RS should be used to analyze past performances and determine if the winning pace is sustainable. if RS indicated the likelihood of runs scored in an upcoming game that would mean you should stream kurt suzuki or mark ellis when duchscherer was to start.
Posted by: Nolan | June 21, 2008 at 08:38 AM