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Expected Wins

Baseball Prospectus has an enjoyable stat called Expected Wins.  Definition:

Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).

This stat can be used to find flukes and buy low opportunities.  Here are the players who really don't deserve as many wins as they have:

NAME W E(W) Win Diff
Mike Mussina 10 5.5 4.5
Brandon Webb 11 6.7 4.3
Cliff Lee 10 6.5 3.5
Joe Saunders 10 6.8 3.2
Chad Gaudin 5 1.9 3.1
Aaron Cook 10 7.1 2.9
Mark Hendrickson 7 4.2 2.8
Vicente Padilla 8 5.2 2.8
Daisuke Matsuzaka 8 5.3 2.7
Andrew Sonnanstine 7 4.6 2.4
Ricky Nolasco 7 4.6 2.4
Ted Lilly 7 4.8 2.2
Micah Owings 6 3.9 2.1
Braden Looper 8 6.0 2.0

By BP's metric, pretty much no one should have more than seven wins right now.  Mussina is the biggest offender; his 4.27 FIP is actually worse than last year's 4.11.  But all you hear about is his resurgence.  If he was 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA, would you look at him differently?  That's the type of performance you should expect moving forward.

Conversely, these players have gotten the short end of the stick and might be buy low opportunities:

NAME W E(W) Win Diff
Ubaldo Jimenez 1 4.3 -3.3
Jeremy Guthrie 3 6.0 -3.0
Odalis Perez 2 4.7 -2.7
Adam Eaton 2 4.6 -2.6
Aaron Harang 3 5.6 -2.6
Greg Maddux 3 5.6 -2.6
Matt Cain 3 5.6 -2.6
Shawn Chacon 2 4.5 -2.5
Joe Blanton 3 5.5 -2.5
Jeff Francis 2 4.2 -2.2
Shaun Marcum 5 7.2 -2.2
Shawn Hill 1 3.1 -2.1
John Danks 4 6.1 -2.1


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