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Time To Worry About Rich Hill
After just two starts, one of which was solid? Yes. Because that's the Cubs. Hill, whose problems often seem mental, always seems at risk of being pulled from the Cubs' rotation. Given the presence of Jon Lieber, it's a very real possibility. Ted Lilly has been worse than Hill this year, but Lilly is paid far too much to be pulled. Plus, Hill had a severe case of the yips in Spring Training.
Despite being one of Hill's biggest supporters for a couple of years, I am concerned that he could become a major fantasy bust this year. If you own him, there's nothing you can do right now.
There's something to be said for giving some extra weight to a pitcher's "stuff" during your draft. Normally I don't, instead trusting my dollar values. But my gut says that I'd rather have the bat-breaking repertoires of Felix Hernandez and Johnny Cueto over the 89 mph heaters of Lilly and Hill.
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Hill is just over thinking his pitches so far. He had a tough spring, which hurt his confidence a bit and is causing him to question his stuff. Nothing in his minor-league numbers (and last year in the bigs) indicates that he should be susceptible to a walk rate over 3. As a matter of fact his AAA BB/9 over 165 innings was under 2! Perhaps he'll struggle a bit more this year, but I would expect that he'll rein in his walks to a respectable 3-3.25 per 9 and put up another good year.
Posted by: Slugdog | April 11, 2008 at 12:19 PM
His one "solid" start wasn't really that solid. He walked 3 and hit a batter in just 6 innings. Plus he had 8 fly balls to 6 ground balls during that game. He's having some serious trouble locating his pitches, which is odd considering his control last season. You know your manager has little confidence in you when you get pulled in the 3rd after giving up 3 runs.
Posted by: deeco3307 | April 11, 2008 at 12:37 PM