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« Hardball Times Mailbag | Main | Scrambling For Putz's Replacement »
Cueto Dominant In Debut
I wrote about Johnny Cueto a few weeks ago. The projection systems said he wouldn't contribute in mixed leagues this year, while the scouts disagreed. I wrote that I was leaning toward the scouts. Young pitchers seem more apt to blow away projections than do young hitters. A dominant Double or Triple A starter with nasty stuff can probably get big league hitters out. Cueto's debut this afternoon was dazzling, with ten Ks and one hit against the D'Backs.
Cueto's available in Yahoo leagues today, and many are wondering whether to use a high waiver claim on him. The answer is yes. Don't hold out for a question mark like Clayton Kershaw or Jay Bruce. Cueto has the talent and opportunity, right now.
Who should you cut for Cueto? That is difficult to answer except on a case by case basis. Feel free to leave your drop candidate in the comments and I'll try to answer. Here are a few answers to the "should I drop him for Cueto" question:
- McGowan: No
- Gallardo: No
- Volquez: Yes
- Harden: Yes
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Ok, here's a couple pitchers. Any I should/could drop to make room for Cueto?
Parra
Maine
Vazquez
Shields
Posted by: whitleyrr | April 03, 2008 at 05:07 PM
Can you do us one better and give a ballpark projection for Cueto?
Posted by: registereduser | April 03, 2008 at 05:09 PM
Thanks for outing Cueto! C'mon Tim he'll never fall to me at the 5th waiver spot in my roto league now.
Posted by: morandjp | April 03, 2008 at 05:12 PM
Maddux
Hudson
Parra
Broxton
Posted by: agarthered | April 03, 2008 at 05:14 PM
When I leave the realm of projections it becomes more of a gut feel...3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP?
Parra - Yes
Maine - No
Vazquez - No
Shields - No
Maddux - Yes
Hudson - No
Broxton - Yes
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 03, 2008 at 05:21 PM
What about:
Pedro
Big Unit?
Arroyo
Gorzelanny
Wainwright
Posted by: waters96 | April 03, 2008 at 05:34 PM
Pedro - No but it's close
Unit - Yes
Arroyo - Yes
Gorz - Yes
Wainwright - No
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 03, 2008 at 05:38 PM
These are just gut feelings of one guy, by the way.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 03, 2008 at 05:39 PM
Grienke (in a 4x4 league)
Snell (in a 5x5)
Posted by: hrb2112 | April 03, 2008 at 05:51 PM
I have one too many batters, so what would you think of dropping either Griffey or Butler for Cueto?
Posted by: emmstar | April 03, 2008 at 05:52 PM
You'd drop Harden? I'd love to be in a league with you.
Posted by: Nicky D. | April 03, 2008 at 06:02 PM
how about Lilly ...?
Posted by: cain_is_able | April 03, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Yep, I'd drop Harden. You would've done the same two starts ago, which seems a little fickle to me.
Greinke - No
Snell - No
Griffey - Yes
Butler - No
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 03, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Lilly - No
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 03, 2008 at 06:06 PM
What about Blanton?
Posted by: emmstar | April 03, 2008 at 06:33 PM
Agree to disagree then. Harden's health will always be a risk but it wasn't a concern all spring. I didn't hesitate to snap him up between rounds 15 and 18 in three different drafts. As long as he makes the starts he's got no ceiling. How many guys in the game can you say that for?
Posted by: Nicky D. | April 03, 2008 at 06:33 PM
That recoil Cueto has bothers me...
Posted by: volt72124 | April 03, 2008 at 06:41 PM
I was originally going to use the waiver priority on Alexei Ramirez to replace David Dejesus as my fifth OF. Should I skip him over and just wait for Cueto?
Posted by: John | April 03, 2008 at 06:47 PM
How about Liriano?
Posted by: Jim | April 03, 2008 at 07:00 PM
Gotta be Cueto. Unless Alexei starts impressing soon, he'll head to Charlotte when Owens comes back.
Posted by: Nicky D. | April 03, 2008 at 07:01 PM
This is what I hate about Yahoo. If a guy on an opening day roster, you should on waivers on opening day.
I've been checking Yahoo every single day since the draft - waiting for him to be added. I put in my request on Wednesday morning, Thursday he deals.
And I'm sitting at #9 waiver request. The 10K outing probably blew his cover, but now... well, I'm toast.
Posted by: maverick | April 03, 2008 at 07:23 PM
would you drop bonderman for cueto?
who has more value, randy johnson or bonderman?
Posted by: rotogirl | April 03, 2008 at 07:57 PM
Harden was lights out in spring '07 too...there is no particular reason to think he can make 25 starts this year. But, you never know. Chipper had a healthy year last year, no one expected that.
Blanton - No
Liriano - No
Alexei - Yes
Bonderman - Yes but it's close
I like Bonderman a touch more than Unit.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 03, 2008 at 08:05 PM
Tim, thanks for answering my question.
Nicky, I'd say it comes down to who's more likely to log 160 this year: Harden or Cueto?
Also: Harden hasn't started more than 9 games since 2005.
Posted by: breakz | April 03, 2008 at 08:25 PM
Although, now that I look Harden's stats over (he was a guy I stayed away from due to risk since I started fantasy last year), I gotta say: its a real shame the guy can't keep healthy. He's a hell of a pitcher.
Posted by: breakz | April 03, 2008 at 08:38 PM
Tim,
How do you rate his trade value for dynasty/keeper leagues? Do you think he's more valuable than say Ellsbury or Longoria long term wise?
Posted by: os_gamejunkie | April 03, 2008 at 08:47 PM
Longoria
Accardo
Posted by: Eddie | April 03, 2008 at 09:03 PM
Question now is who would you trade for Cueto?
What kind of 5x5 $ value would you place on Cueto from here on out? I am thinkig in the John Maine range, about $12-14
Any of the following worth giving up for Cueto?
Ian Snell
Matt Kemp
Derek Lowe
Posted by: rotodr | April 03, 2008 at 09:21 PM
My pitchers, ranked in order with my number 3 waiver (keep fingers crossed, I know a lot of people are making claims on Adam Dunn, for some reason he was dropped).
Zito
Kennedy
Sonnanstine
Slowey
Garza
Posted by: ewoks | April 03, 2008 at 09:31 PM
ewoks, I'd cut any one of those guys in a heartbeat for Cueto. Kennedy might be the only one who gives me pause, but just barely. I'd probably cut Slowey or Sonnanstine first.
Posted by: Eddie | April 03, 2008 at 09:52 PM
Cut Billingsley for Cueto?
I'm struggling with using a number 3 waiver spot in a 12 team league where people are impatient -- likely to drop some good players with slow starts.
Posted by: Stuart | April 03, 2008 at 10:17 PM
Snell was dropped in my 5x5 and comes off waivers Saturday, same day as Cueto. I have top priority so I can have my pick. Tim says don't drop Snell for Cueto, but I want to grab Cueto. I figure he will be the more popular claim after this start, so maybe my league is dumb and everyone forgets to put a claim in on Snell. I could use both.
Posted by: Josh | April 03, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Anyone else sick of how repetitive and narrow fantasy sports coverage has become? This site used to be a little different. Sigh.
As to the issue at hand, if the logic for Harden is you would have dropped him two starts ago then how do we get to use a high waiver claim on cueto based on one start. I know some will cite his spring and whatnot but truth be told I think there would have been many more naysayers about using a high waiver on cueto aside from todays dominance. Not questioning the advice (I agree) and not questioning using a high waiver on him (you almost have to even if it is just for the trade value) but providing some interesting food for thought. Would you have used that priority on cueto yesterday? If not then take a look at some of the standout pitching performances of the first few days and re-evaluate what cueto did today really means.
Posted by: walkoffblast | April 04, 2008 at 12:33 AM
i have a claim in to drop Big Unit for him, but don't think I'd drop Harden..the guy is a dominant starter when healthy, and i'd ride him until he gets hurt.
cueto is still a rookie pitching in a hitters park..
but if people are seriously thinking of dropping guys like Shields, Vazquez and Maine for him, everyone should pick him up just for the trade value.
Posted by: RAEF715 | April 04, 2008 at 07:30 AM
one more thing..we've seen a lot of good pitching performances the first week by mediocre pitchers- that seems to be the norm in early april..heck, even ervin santana won on the road.. i just cant get too carried away with a guys major league debut..
Posted by: RAEF715 | April 04, 2008 at 07:32 AM
Tim? I love your posts and everything, but I lost a waiver wire signing of Cueto because of this posting. Ugh.
Posted by: IowaCubs | April 04, 2008 at 08:21 AM
...and just to clairify... it's not your fault... i'm jussayin...
Posted by: IowaCubs | April 04, 2008 at 08:23 AM
nobody lost a waiver claim on cueto because of this or any article. If you are seriously playing in a league where every one of your owners didnt at least consider using their waiver claim on him, then you need to reconsider the leagues you are playing in.
Posted by: Chris | April 04, 2008 at 08:24 AM
RAEF: characterizing Cueto as a "mediocre pitcher" is a bit dishonest, seeing as how the kid has three solid pitches, minor league numbers, and the scouts' high marks.
Posted by: breakz | April 04, 2008 at 08:29 AM
Agreed with Chris, and also: smarter players would consider the inflated value Cueto has right now. I'd try to spin him for Shields or Snell, for example.
Posted by: breakz | April 04, 2008 at 08:31 AM
I find it fascinating how much people don't appreciate James Shields. He is head and shoulders beyond Snell and many of the comps I have read.
Posted by: Kevin W. | April 04, 2008 at 09:06 AM
to clarify, i wasnt saying Cueto is mediocre, just pointing out that alot of known mediocre pitchers have had very nice stat lines in the opening season, which seems to be a normal occurrence at the start of seasons...i don't get overly excited over those performances, and im not going to get carried away with Cuetomania because of this one very impressive performance..
Posted by: RAEF715 | April 04, 2008 at 09:10 AM
you wouldn't have to use a waiver claim on bruce, he's already available in the yahoo player universe. kershaw, however, is not.
tim, i think it might be worthy of a post to go through yahoo's player list (and other sites' as well) and see what guys might be worth saving a waiver claim for.
Posted by: MO Boiler | April 04, 2008 at 09:24 AM
"Would you have used that priority on cueto yesterday?"
That's not the question, to me. The question is whether I would've chosen Cueto or Harden if forced to pick one of them on draft day, and I would've taken Cueto. I am disappointed that you think RotoAuthority has become repetitive, narrow, or worse over time but I guess you're entitled to that.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 04, 2008 at 09:46 AM
Tim, I don't think many people who come here think your site is repetitive or narrow. The fact that you've got over 40 posts on a Johnny Cueto blog indicates to me how much people value your opinions and insights. The fact that you have an entirely different take on the value of starting pitching, for one thing, indicates to me that you go your own way. At any rate, notwithstanding whether Yahoo should have had JC available before his start is irrelevant to the discussion of whether he will be a positive contributor to a fantasy team this year. After watching him blow away nearly everybody on Sportscenter last night, it's pretty clear that this kid has the goods to be great. Whether he adjusts to the hitters or the hitters adjust to him first and better will be the interesting question.
Anyway, me only complaint with you is that there aren't MORE posts. Not that I'm complaining.
Posted by: waters96 | April 04, 2008 at 10:20 AM
Just read my post and I apologize for the typos. I also wish there was an edit function on the software so my spelling and grammar mistakes aren't immortalized for all time.
Posted by: waters96 | April 04, 2008 at 10:22 AM
RAEF: I get where you're coming from.
Seeing as how I had top waiver priority, though, I decided to jump on the bandwagon.
waters: you're absolutely right. Lincecum wasn't available in Yahoo last year until his first start, and he worked out great as a #3/#4.
Posted by: breakz | April 04, 2008 at 10:51 AM
I was looking at his comparables on BP and saw his top included Anibel Sanchez. If his rookie year is anything like Anibel both at age 22 then he could be amazing.
I wouldn't bet on the 2.83 ERA though.
Posted by: Trizza | April 04, 2008 at 12:18 PM
breakz, lincecum was in fact available last year in yahoo! at draft time - i know because i drafted him in the last round of one of my leagues. however, gallardo and braun were not, and didn't clear waivers until a couple of games after their callups in most cases.
Posted by: MO Boiler | April 04, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Im trying to decide wo I should drop out of Unit, BJ Ryan, and Wood for Cueto.
Posted by: Laputian | April 04, 2008 at 01:32 PM
MO, could've sworn it was Lincecum. Oh well.
Posted by: breakz | April 04, 2008 at 01:43 PM
Shouldn't we Consider this an OVERHYPE on Cueto's abilities?
I just got him from waivers (dropped K. Johnson), since my starting rotation needs improvement. But I'm thinking of trading him for Texeira while Cueto is hot. Suggestions?
Posted by: Jimmy V | April 05, 2008 at 12:03 PM