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When Spring Training Stats Matter
I always go back to this nugget from John Dewan from the 2006 Baseball Forecaster:
A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.
Let's focus on players with at least 30 ABs for now.
- White Sox outfielder Brian Anderson is at .714 this spring vs. a career mark of .353. He's fighting for an extra outfielder role right now, but could be traded into a better situation.
- Carlos Guillen is slugging .771 against a career mark of .450. Perhaps he will become more of a traditional first baseman and nail 30 home runs? This is his last year for shortstop eligibility.
- Nick Swisher is slugging .824 vs. a .464 career mark. Could he return to 35 HR or even reach 40 given his new park?
- Washington's Cristian Guzman sits at .636 vs. a .378 career mark. A return to his 10 HR days, plus 10 swipes? NL-only sleeper?
- Jorge Cantu's slugging .688 against a .450 career mark. 25 HR as Florida's third baseman? Dallas McPherson is out of the running for now.
- Billy Butler is at .677 after his rookie year SLG of .447. Will he jump to the 25-30 HR range in his age 22 season while also hitting .300?
- Rafael Furcal is slugging .633 vs. his .407 career mark. Maybe that ankle is all better and he tops his career high of 15 HR in a contract year. Great shortstop pick if you miss out on the Big Three.
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Thanks for revisiting this subject. Would it be possible to look at the results of the players who did well in Spring Training last year? The list of archives links on the left doesn't seem to include March 2007.
Posted by: NadavT | March 13, 2008 at 12:27 PM
What players qualified for this list a year ago? Just curious.
Posted by: Gentleman Jack | March 13, 2008 at 12:33 PM
NadavT beat me to the punch. I would also like to look at the results of players who did well in spring training of last year. I recall drafting Adam Dunn on this factor last year, and he did end the year with a significantly improved BA over his prior two seasons (.264 vs .234 and .247).
Thanks! I am a big fan of the quality of thinking on this site.
Posted by: Burgertime | March 13, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Here check this out, I just re-posted my look at the '06 guys.
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2007/03/spring-training.html
Perhaps tomorrow I can evaluate those who did it in '07.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | March 13, 2008 at 01:05 PM
What about players who have upped their slugging this spring due to high BAs (and then by proxy, BABIPs). For example, Angel Pagan is slugging .605 but he's also batting over .400 and hadn't notched an XBH until about a week ago.
Posted by: MEddler | March 13, 2008 at 01:32 PM
Meddler has a point. Anyone have an ISO comparison of ST vs. career avg ISO for the last few years?
Posted by: BillyB | March 13, 2008 at 02:38 PM
Milledge, Chris Snyder, Billy Butler. I'll keep repeating those names. Hoping there's something to their hot starts. Helps to confirm their good starts when you predict they'll breakout beforehand and then they start spring well.
Posted by: finite24 | March 13, 2008 at 05:21 PM