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What It Takes To Win: Home Runs

Time for another installment of  What It Takes To Win.    In this series, I examine my keeper league and determine the necessary thresholds to finish strong in each category.  I feel that my league is fairly standard: 23-man rosters, 12 teams, normal 5x5 categories.  I've got three years of data to work with, and my goal is to finish at least third in each category.  10 points times 10 categories equals 100 points, typically enough to win the league.  Last time I looked at batting average.

I have found 313 home runs to be a mark that is likely to earn a second or third place finish in the home runs category.  This is a lofty goal to set.

  • Given 14 position players, you'll need to average 22.4 per to reach 313.  The mark becomes 24 for the remaining if you draft Juan Pierre; it goes down to 20.4 for the rest if you get Ryan Howard.
  • Say you get a respectable 30 home runs between your two catchers, and another 45 between your three middle infielders.  That'd mean you really need 26.5 from each of the remaining nine traditional power positions.
  • In 2007, 46 players hit 25 or more bombs.  In '06, 54 reached the mark.  In '05, 45 did it.  So assume there are on average four 25+ HR hitters for each of the 12 teams in the fantasy league.
  • Given our benchmark last time of .288 and today's 22.4 per player HR benchmark, how many players are likely to do both?  By my count, just 20.  Among those, eight can steal double digit bases for you.  Hunter Pence is probably the quietest five-category guy.

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