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The Catcher Dropoff

By Tim Dierkes [March 16, 2008 at 11:38pm CST]

Sometimes a position has a clear dropoff. Catchers are bunched up that way this year, in my opinion. I see the five elite, and then a mixed bag of other stuff. I hate to leave a draft without one of these five.

1. Russell Martin - .286-16-74-82-15 in 504 ABs - $23.20. ADP: 30.88. Martin, Joe Mauer, and perhaps J.R. Towles are the only backstops you can look to for double-digit steals. That is one reason I'd take Martin over V-Mart - Martin provides more balance to your lineup. Plus, Martin is only 25. Compare this projection to his '07 numbers - I'm not calling for a repeat, but imagine if you get it! Gravy.

2. Victor Martinez - .297-20-93-78-0 in 546 ABs - $22.21. ADP: 29.28. The market says V-Mart and Martin are almost identical and value, and I have them separated by only ninety-nine cents. If V-Mart pops 22 HRs and drives in 95 instead, he wins. And just like Martin, I'm not calling for a repeat for Martinez but his '07 shows what he can do.

3. Joe Mauer - .309-11-71-76-9 in 492 ABs - $21.12. ADP: 59.13. Instead of using a very early third-round pick for one of the above two, you could roll the dice a bit and wait til the fifth. This projection is something of a middle ground of Mauer's last two seasons. Like Martin, it's his age 25 season and there's room for growth. The guy won the batting title in '06.

4. Brian McCann - .290-20-85-62-1 in 481 ABs - $18.17. ADP: 55.89. If Mauer is Martin Lite, then McCann is V-Mart Lite. Just 24, McCann knocked in 92 runs in an "off year" in '07. The low run total kind of stinks though.

5. Jorge Posada - .284-19-78-74-2 in 466 ABs - $17.22. ADP: 91.23. Wow, eighth round for Posada? To me, the lack of respect is an overcorrection. People think, "Posada, he can't hit .338 again! And he's old!" So what? A repeat of his '06 would be worth $18.98. There is no good reason for the ADP gap between Posada and Mauer/McCann. This is not an aggressive projection for Posada. It is very achievable and worthy of better than the eighth round.

After Posada there's a clear dropoff. Soto and Towles at $12, Johjima at $11, Molina at $9, Ruiz, Pierzynski, Pudge, and Ramon Hernandez around $7. Johjima typically kicks this tier off in the 11th round. I see nice value for Molina and Ruiz if I stoop to this tier. And I have to say again - why the hell is the market putting Salty in this group? No.

Full Story | Comments (9) | Categories: Catchers

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Comments

Martin is good, but will not post numbers as good as last year. First off he will not get as many AB and with Furcal (hopefully) healthier he will not need to / be able to steal as much. That together with VMart's many years of solid history and the fact that VMart plays 1B and can even DH in the AL (if Hafner is mediocre again) gives too many reasons to give the nod to Victor.

Posted by: Wonderbat | March 17, 2008 at 02:43 AM

Regarding Salty's overvaluation, I'd say its due to overexposure: he had 3 HRs in that 30-run Rangers win last year, he was "the guy" the Rangers got for Teixeira, and he had a stretch of games for the Braves where he was white hot, leading to a cult following.

I remember hearing one scout mention that the Braves wouldn't let him go unless there was something wrong with his fundamentals. He's looking at a time share, he had no consistent success past AA ball, and the Rangers might send him down to AAA to start the year.

I'd rather take Soto or Ruiz.

Posted by: breakz | March 17, 2008 at 08:31 AM

Wonderbat...you did see where I stressed heavily that I wasn't calling for Martin to repeat? Martinez playing 1B is not an asset; if you use him there you've got a big problem.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | March 17, 2008 at 08:57 AM

I think we're going to see more power from Martin this year. Besides that, where is CHRIS SNYDER. You're killing me Tim. ARI likes his bat so much they've been experimenting with batting him 4th and 5th. He's going to catch 115 games and he's going to put up a line very similar to Molina.

Posted by: finite24 | March 17, 2008 at 10:27 AM

Tim I think Wonderbat meant that since VMart plays 1b frequently in real life, its a fantasy advantage because he is in the lineup more often than a typical catcher, so he gets more at bats.

Posted by: TheBigOne | March 17, 2008 at 10:36 AM

Yes, thebigone, and that's the reason for the original optimism regarding Salty.

Posted by: jrfukudome | March 17, 2008 at 11:14 AM

i had a question really for anyone with some input. i'm in a keeper league, in a rebuilding stage and olivo is my catcher. ouch. i have the 3rd overall pick in our upcoming draft...considering neither of them are taken, do i go Soto or Towles>??

Posted by: 36crazyfists | March 17, 2008 at 03:48 PM

36crazyfights

I'm assuming thats a redraft league. These guys are 11th or 12th round picks, even in keeper leagues. Of all positions, catchers and pitchers should receive the least pump because its a keeper leauge because of the injury risk associated with the position. So unless you're keeping 11 or 12 players per team, then I think you're taking Soto/Towles way too early.

Posted by: finite24 | March 18, 2008 at 07:43 PM

a quick question for anyone,
I have martin at catcher and kelly johnson or jeff kent at 2. is it worth trading martin for soto and bj upton?

Posted by: baseball fan | March 19, 2008 at 06:55 PM