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Analyzing Last Year's Top 20 Starters

Here are the top 20 starters this year according to average draft position.  They'll all be drafted within the first nine rounds.

1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Brandon Webb
4. Erik Bedard
5. Josh Beckett
6. C.C. Sabathia
7. John Lackey
8. Cole Hamels
9. Dan Haren
10. Justin Verlander
11. Carlos Zambrano
12. Aaron Harang
13. Scott Kazmir
14. Roy Oswalt
15. John Smoltz
16. Felix Hernandez
17. Chris Young
18. Daisuke Matsuzaka
19. Roy Halladay
20. Javier Vazquez

How many of these will actually pan out?   To answer that question, let's take a look at last year's top 20.  I've plugged their actual 2007 stats into my valuation system.  I'll say they need to have returned at least $18 of value to be true top 20 material.

1. Johan Santana - $37.86
2. Chris Carpenter - $0.00
3. Roy Oswalt - $19.34
4. Roy Halladay - $19.92
5. Carlos Zambrano - $19.80
6. Jake Peavy - $49.76
7. Brandon Webb - $35.80
8. John Lackey - $33.88
9. John Smoltz - $29.59
10. Jeremy Bonderman  - $0.43
11. Ben Sheets - $9.81
12. Aaron Harang - $31.73
13. Scott Kazmir - $21.56
14. Felix Hernandez - $12.66
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka - $15.72
16. C.C. Sabathia - $39.05
17. Dontrelle Willis - $0.00
18. Chris Young - $22.34
19. Rich Harden - $0.00
20. Brett Myers - $7.96

There you have it - 60% of last year's top 20 starters were worthy of their draft position; the rest were not.  20% of last year's top 20 starters turned out to be worthless.  Of the eight busts, only two had no health issues (Dice-K and Willis).  And I'm being generous with the $18 cutoff for everyone.   Oswalt, Halladay, and Zambrano were fourth round picks and technically busts.   

Looking at this year's top 20, I'd say Sabathia, Haren, Harang,  Oswalt, Dice-K, and Vazquez seem the safest.  Some are scared about Sabathia's innings, but at least he's never had an arm injury.  I could be wrong about these six, of course.  But look at 2008's top 20 starters again.  Odds are at least six or seven don't return value and a couple are complete busts.


Full Story |  Comments (13) | Categories: Starters

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