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« Technical Difficulties | Main | Hardball Times Mailbag Questions »
The research of Ron Shandler and Co. says:
The .300 hitters most often come from the group with a minimum 86% contact and 11% walk rate.
Let's loosen those thresholds to 84% and 9% and see who reached 'em in '07 (minimum 300 plate appearances). Turns out that 14 of the 30 players found hit .290 or better in '07.
| NAME | CR | BB% | AVG |
| Magglio Ordonez | 86.7% | 11.3% | 0.363 |
| Chipper Jones | 85.4% | 13.8% | 0.337 |
| Albert Pujols | 89.7% | 14.9% | 0.327 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 89.2% | 11.0% | 0.324 |
| Todd Helton | 86.7% | 17.2% | 0.320 |
| Jose Vidro | 89.6% | 10.3% | 0.314 |
| Scott Hatteberg | 90.3% | 12.0% | 0.310 |
| Kenny Lofton | 91.2% | 11.0% | 0.303 |
| Jeff Kent | 87.7% | 10.3% | 0.302 |
| Victor Martinez | 86.5% | 9.9% | 0.301 |
| Garrett Atkins | 84.1% | 10.0% | 0.301 |
| Casey Kotchman | 90.3% | 10.7% | 0.296 |
| Joe Mauer | 87.2% | 12.3% | 0.292 |
| Brian Roberts | 84.1% | 12.5% | 0.290 |
| Mike Lamb | 85.5% | 10.4% | 0.289 |
| Hideki Matsui | 86.7% | 11.8% | 0.285 |
| Josh Bard | 85.1% | 11.4% | 0.285 |
| Conor Jackson | 88.0% | 11.3% | 0.284 |
| Andre Ethier | 84.8% | 9.3% | 0.284 |
| Jose Reyes | 88.5% | 10.2% | 0.280 |
| Luis Gonzalez | 87.9% | 10.8% | 0.278 |
| Barry Bonds | 84.1% | 28.0% | 0.276 |
| Brian Giles | 87.4% | 11.7% | 0.271 |
| Justin Morneau | 84.6% | 9.8% | 0.271 |
| Johnny Damon | 85.2% | 11.0% | 0.270 |
| Gary Sheffield | 85.6% | 14.5% | 0.265 |
| Marco Scutaro | 88.2% | 9.4% | 0.260 |
| David DeJesus | 86.3% | 9.6% | 0.260 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 86.9% | 10.1% | 0.259 |
| Brian Schneider | 86.3% | 12.1% | 0.235 |
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this is always one of my favorite segments and it sort of addresses my current fantasy baseball issue
i'm in a 16-team keeper league with an emphasis on AVG w/ a lot of ABs (i'll spare you the specifics, but this strategy helped me dominate my league last year). we can only keep 3 players and i know i'm keeping ichiro, but i have to decide between rios, aramis, c. hart, cano, derrek lee, and tulowitzki
i could go on forever making a point for each, but if you could at least help me prioritize hart and rios that would be a huge help (i noticed hart high on your personal ranks and rios' september concerns me)
Posted by: Nolan | February 26, 2008 at 12:58 PM
I second Nolan's comment, as this is also one of my favorite segments. Just at first glance, it's crazy how many injury risks are on the list this year. Good stuff, Tim.
Posted by: SabermetricsGuy | February 26, 2008 at 01:06 PM
I know this is more like a quick-and-dirty look, but it should be noted that this is ignoring power and speed, both of which should increase batting average potential.
In addition, it ignores batted ball types (something that is rather consistent year-to-year)- a groundball goes for a hit more often than a flyball, so you'd expect groundball hitters to have a higher average, all else equal.
Posted by: mkooljr1 | February 26, 2008 at 01:09 PM
mkooljr1 - are you certain that a groundball goes for a hit more often than flyball?
pitchers w/ high ground ball rates usually are more successful
i guess, like u said, u cant look at these things individually, u have to consider power and speed with the player (power+fly balls=HRs and speed+groundballs=1Bs and both help in supporting AVG)
Posted by: Nolan | February 26, 2008 at 01:22 PM
mkooljr1 - "groundball goes for a hit more often than a flyball" is that true because 'flyball' does not include line drives
Posted by: Nolan | February 26, 2008 at 01:24 PM
Maybe an expanded list showing what percent contact is line drives. For example Schneiders 86% contact will never get him close to .300 with all his weak grounders.
Posted by: hrb2112 | February 26, 2008 at 01:40 PM
I like this conversation guys. Here is the expanded list of LD% and GB% that i pulled off Hardball Times. The first number their BA, next is LD% and last is GB%. Sorry for the formatting, but it requires html, which I am sorely lacking at.
NAME AVG LD% GB%
Magglio Ordonez 0.363 19.2 42.0
Chipper Jones 0.337 19.2 43.6
Albert Pujols 0.327 18.6 42.1
Vladimir Guerrero 0.324 15.6 48.5
Todd Helton 0.32 24.1 39.6
Jose Vidro 0.314 19.5 50.8
Scott Hatteberg 0.31 23.2 42.7
Kenny Lofton 0.303 20.3 39.2
Jeff Kent 0.302 17.5 37.8
Victor Martinez 0.301 20.1 41.6
Garrett Atkins 0.301 24.5 31.4
Casey Kotchman 0.296 16.0 50.6
Joe Mauer 0.292 17.9 54.5
Brian Roberts 0.29 19.5 35.8
Mike Lamb 0.289 17.9 43.3
Hideki Matsui 0.285 17.1 42.6
Josh Bard 0.285 18.3 51.8
Conor Jackson 0.284 19.8 37.5
Andre Ethier 0.284 18.1 46.3
Jose Reyes 0.28 18.5 41.6
Luis Gonzalez 0.278 18.5 42.2
Barry Bonds 0.276 17.4 39.9
Brian Giles 0.271 19.1 40.4
Justin Morneau 0.271 15.9 44.7
Johnny Damon 0.27 18.3 48.3
Gary Sheffield 0.265 16.8 40.8
Marco Scutaro 0.26 20.0 39.3
David DeJesus 0.26 18.7 45.6
Carlos Ruiz 0.259 18.2 46.2
Brian Schneider 0.235 15.4 48.3
Posted by: Ratdog | February 26, 2008 at 02:52 PM
what's that list tell you about Mike Lamb? seems like he might be a bit of a sleeper to me...
Posted by: jatorres | February 26, 2008 at 11:05 PM
Well if anyone is still reading the comments, yes, a groundball goes for a hit more often than a flyball.
Nolan- like you said GB pitchers are usually more successful, all else equal, because a GB can't go for a HR (other than an inside-th-parker).
And correct- flyballs do not include line drives, which go for a hit the most, obviously, and which batters seem to have some control over their rate as well.
Posted by: mkooljr1 | February 27, 2008 at 07:56 AM