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The Fourth Pick

Of my five leagues this year, one is the Fantasy Baseball Search league.  The draft is March 3rd, and I believe you're going to be able to watch it live.

The draft order has been set, and I get the fourth pick.  Let's analyze the options here, since this is crucial and at least 8% of you will be faced with the same pick. 

• There is zero chance Alex Rodriguez is available at #4.
• Hanley Ramirez is likely to go second, but he could certainly fall to me.
• I expect Jose Reyes to go second or third, but he is another possibility for me.  If I see Reyes at #4, I have to take him.
• If things go according to Mock Draft Central, A-Rod, Hanley, and Reyes will be the first three off the board.  That would leave me with David Wright.  I can't see how I would opt for anyone else. Very safe and reliable.
• I can picture a scenario where both Hanley and Wright are available for me.  I wrote earlier that Wright is preferable.  Can you make a strong argument for taking Hanley over Wright?
• In a Hanley vs. Reyes situation, I've already said I want Reyes.
• It is very likely that Johan Santana is available for me at #4 (current ADP is 12.68).  Is there any possible justification for taking him over Hanley, Reyes, or Wright?  My gut says no, my dollar values say yes.
• At least some folks out there would consider going with Holliday, Rollins, Pujols, Cabrera, or Utley with my pick.  Does anyone dare argue one of those cases?

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