Roster For Fantasy Baseball Writers League

UPDATE: Eric at FakeTeams has a look at how the draft played out in full.  Here's a look at each roster by position.

MONDAY: Last night I participated in a draft for a league compromised of fantasy baseball bloggers.  I had the sixth pick (I took Jimmy Rollins).  I also couldn't resist taking two premium catchers.  My offense seems a little light though.  It was a 12 team 5x5 league with a snake draft.  Here's my roster; what do you think?  Criticism is welcome.

C - Russell Martin - Round 3
C - Joe Mauer - Round 6
1B - Derrek Lee - Round 4
2B - Kelly Johnson - Round 13
SS - Jimmy Rollins - Round 1
3B - Josh Fields - Round 15
CI - Todd Helton - Round 10
MI - Orlando Hudson - Round 17
OF - Carlos Lee - Round 2
OF - Matt Kemp - Round 8
OF - Nate McLouth - Round 18
OF - Luke Scott - Round 19
OF - Moises Alou - Round 21
DH - Hank Blalock - Round 20

SP - Cole Hamels - Round 5
SP - Roy Oswalt - Round 7
SP - Javier Vazquez - Round 9
SP - Ted Lilly - Round 14
SP - Derek Lowe - Round 16
SP - Bronson Arroyo - Round 22
RP - Bobby Jenks - Round 11
RP - Matt Capps - Round 12
RP - Kerry Wood - Round 23

Bn - Bill Hall - Round 24
Bn - Chad Qualls - Round 25
Bn - Rick Ankiel - Round 26

And for another vantage point on the league, check out Edwin and Derek's rosters.  Do they have me beat?  Also here's the Fantasy Hurler team.

Comments

[MF]

I would love to know in which round you drafted each player. Thanks!

[Tim Dierkes]

Can't seem to find a record of that...Rollins was round 1, Lee round 2, and Martin round 3....

[LosGenius]

I was gonna ask for the order as well.
This looks like a good team.

[SabermetricsGuy]

I like the fact that you were able to grab several guys who are quality batsmen. Martin, Mauer, D Lee, Kelly Johnson, and Helton should place your team near the top in AVG. On a somewhat related matter, can you find try to sneak in the True .300 Hitters piece if you get a chance? If you're too busy, can you just tell me where I can BB rates and contact rates?

[Kevin W.]

Wow, Martin AND Mauer? Should be interesting to see how this strategy works in a 2 catcher league. Your roster doesn't appear to have suffered because of this.

I love your first two picks. The drop off in your outfield after Lee shows how shallow that position is again this year. Our league starts 4 outfielders and I will be pounding them early and often.

You got a solid pitching staff too. Lilly and Vazquez had terrific peripherals last year. Oswalt's incredibly declining strikeout rate is something I am sure you are aware of.

[Raindoggg]

Looks fairly solid. Keep active on the waiver wire and you can probably pick up at least one breakout slugger for your weak OF. Other than that I think the offense is solid. O-dog is fairly weak for MI I think but again, if you only have that hole and maybe one or two others you can usually plug those through a trade and/or the waiver wire.....speed also is lacking of course it looks like, but the staff looks solid. Bill Hall should bounce back and can help with depth and/or a hole in the OF....looks like a possible contender going in and that's probably all a guy can ask...

[keeper3323]

I would also love to know the middle of your draft, as I am in a 10 team keeper league (8 per team) I am curious to see how rounds 9-14 played out in particular. It is so tough to rank OF, SP and RP in those rounds especially since virtually all closers are still available in my league. Thanks!

[Tim Dierkes]

Yeah the OF is ugly on this club...will definitely have some flexibility there.

[KingCorran]

Kemp is underrated. Your outfield is top-heavy... just the way it should be. Scott should stick on your roster all year as well.

[The Boston Bombers]

Pulling two top tier catchers is outstanding in your format. I can't imagine the trade value you will have. I am not crazy about o-dawg and lilly though. Do you feel Mouis Alou will get enough bats, or is he the type of old player you have to pay alot of attention to if he's in the lineup or not (ala, kent)?

[Tim Dierkes]

Alou will be a guy I will watch closely and manipulate. I figure I'm getting a really strong half season from him and need to pair him with some other OF. If I play that "platoon" right it could be pretty valuable. Alou always hits when he's healthy.

[NadavT]

According to the dollar values on the latest ranking you sent out, your team is worth $295.88 (that's counting negative values assigned to Qualls and Wood).

The dollar values might not transfer exactly to this format, but if they do, assuming a $260 budget, it looks like you netted about $36 in value with this draft. Not bad!

[walkoffblast]

Bunch of suckups...

Not a terrible team but the two catchers was a mistake. There is too much value much later at catcher this year to take two that early. If Kemp was your third OF and you had a soto/towles/ruiz or whoever type think how much better this team would look. If one was a value pick then the trade argument is legit but we all know drafting to trde does not work value wise.

I think you did a good blancing act but I am not sure your avg is going to be a strength like people are saying because of it. Sneaky power sources but below average until some of these guys prove otherwise. I am also surprised your steals are kind of shaky in the same form as power.

Smart pitching staff but I think Howry might be the guy to draft before wood right now if that was an option. I know all cubs fans have fallen in love with the idea of wood closing but step back for a second and think how likely that is to happen and work out enough to be valuable.

This team has potential to be crafty good but it has a high risk factor of flopping.

[Christo P. Ney]

I ran the numbers for this team using your 2008 projections. Obviously, I had some time to kill.

Here they are:

Avg.: 285
Hrs: 271
RBI : 1070
Runs: 1147
SB: 160

Wins: 91
Saves: 81
ERA: 3.7789
WHIP: 1.2618
SO: 1141

This only assumes the starting lineup you gave and not factoring in bench players.

Comparing it to a very active league I played in last year using two less players (one catcher, four OFs), you seem to be only wanting in average and only slightly in SBs.

I like the compiling of 8,9,10 SB guys to get a decent number and I think McLouth has a chance at 35-40 depending on playing time.

Some injury concerns with Blalock and Scott/Alou could see platoon situations. If it's a routine platoon situation, just plugging in Ankiel won't be a problem. It's those game-time decisions that just kill.

But hrs, rbi and runs seem solid and should compete for the top four, depending how things fall. Top two may be too much to ask and there's nobody on the roster outside of Kemp with realistic expectations to dramatically exceed career averages (your Rollins projection feels a bit conservative, though, so that could really boost things).

ERA and WHIP are definitely middle of the pack and you'll need one more closer, especially with Wood in a three pitcher race for opps.

Ks and wins look to be top three/four depending on league maximums. You have pitchers from teams that should win games so that helps. Could see an '05 Garland-type year out of a couple.

I would worry about Lilly's second year in the league and being a fly-ball pitcher. Maybe I'd worry about using Hamels to buttress the overalls with his injuries. If he misses six weeks say (completely hypothetical), you could be scrambling to keep your head above water in Ks, ERA and WHIP.

Just my two cents. Not an expert.

For a 12-team, I'd run with it.

[Tim Dierkes]

Cool exercise Nadav, I was too lazy to do it. Though 113% value...I dunno. I think most winning teams beat that.

Just couldnt resist on Mauer. I could see it not paying off, this is true. But the other position players didn't do much for me.

Avg I project at .286, seems about right for this group. Should be near the top. Definitely light on power, middle of the pack speed. 160 steals or so.

Unfortunately Howry went several rounds earlier and I couldn't get him. Couple of "my guys" like Lincecum and McGowan I waited too long, thinking ADP would be when they would go.

[os_gamejunkie]

I really like this team alot, if Hall rebounds to at least to his '05 line and Ankiel goes for at least .265/25/85 you'll be able to maximize your OF.

Also can't believe your we're able to snag two elite catcher with no wheel pick, as I figured taking Martin would have started the catcher run. Feel bad for the team that has Kurt Suzuki and John Buck paired together.

[EsTiLO]

-You reached on Jimmy Rollins pal. I can understand getting him like the 10th pick but 6th? That's early for him. You're banking too much on him having a even better season..
-Russell Martin's numbers are not 3rd round material IMO. Even if he's a catcher...
-You have Fields as your starting 3b which is not a good idea IMO. His avg was abysmal last season and He probably also has that Khalil Green syndrome. Low BA , high HR's. Also Crede is still there.
-Roy Oswalt has been some what of a disappointment these past few years. But where he's going in drafts , he's semi-bargain. You better pray that Cole Hamels stays healthy.
- I Don't like DLowe at all.He's too up and down for me. Bronson Arroyo was terrible last season.
-You most definitely need more offensive punch and more quality pitching..

[EsTiLO]

-You reached on Jimmy Rollins pal. I can understand getting him like the 10th pick but 6th? That's early for him. You're banking too much on him having a even better season..
-Russell Martin's numbers are not 3rd round material IMO. Even if he's a catcher...
-You have Fields as your starting 3b which is not a good idea IMO. His avg was abysmal last season and He probably also has that Khalil Green syndrome. Low BA , high HR's. Also Crede is still there.
-Roy Oswalt has been some what of a disappointment these past few years. But where he's going in drafts , he's semi-bargain. You better pray that Cole Hamels stays healthy.
- I Don't like DLowe at all.He's too up and down for me. Bronson Arroyo was terrible last season.
-You most definitely need more offensive punch and more quality pitching..

[Tim Dierkes]

On Rollins, I agreed with a lot of the commenters here noting the dropoff at SS after him. I am actually banking on him having a significantly worse season if you look at his projection. He is very reliable.

Catcher adds $13 to the person's value...

True on Fields, but every team has a weakness. Crede is a lock to be dealt. Fields will hit .260, steal 10.

It's all true on Oswalt...can't remember if he was 6th or 7th round but he was still a bargain. I dont have an aggressive projection for him. I have a lot of healthy guys to balance Cole.

DLowe went quite late, massive bargain.

[Tim Dierkes]

Just added rounds, gives more clarity.

[Chris R]

Good balance on your squad; many contributors to speed and power and no really one-dimensional guys.
I like your value picks, especially Hudson in #17, Bill Hall in #24 and Ankiel in #26.
I think you reached for Martin - no biggie, but having done that, taking Morneau in #6 doesn't compute. I might have looked there for a tier 2 3B like A.Ram, Zimmerman or Atkins or a 4-category OF like Hart, C. Young or D. Young.
The pitching staff looks solid to me, though I won't be drafting Wood. Vazquez was an especially good value at #9.

[hrb2112]

From the round 5 Hamels pick until the mid teen rounds you alternated between picking hitters and pitchers. Was this a conscious decison and part of your strategy, or when it came to picking your next possile hitter or next possible pitcher you just randomly ended up in the pattern?

Without seeing who was still available when you picked it is hard to truly analyze a team's picks beyond looking at just the end result.

Is there any way to publish the entire draft? Bloggers are as much "experts" as those ESPN and CBS Sportsline guys.

[graeme]

I'm not kissing ass but i seriously like the team, that being said, the only problems that i can foresee are power, where i only cite 2 players on your squad who are locks for 20 or more homeruns(Rollins and C.Lee)and the pitching is a little risky regarding injury i.e Hamels, Vazquez,Lilly and Lowe.

[Edwin]

Great to see the site back up and running, Tim. I thought you had a very solid draft. In general, I think people overvalue the importance of drafting. As long as you get decent numbers in most categories, you can leave it up to lady luck, your brain, and how much time you're willing to spend.

[Tim Dierkes]

Thanks Edwin. Hey you got a link to your analysis (too lazy to surf)?

Hopefully we can make the draft public...I am definitely no more expert than the readers of this site, that's for sure. RotoAuthority league is gonna be a battle.

[bobo]

"Couple of "my guys" like Lincecum and McGowan I waited too long, thinking ADP would be when they would go."

And this is why auctions >>>>>>>>>>>>> drafts.

The ripple effect that yahoo/espn/etc. have had is sad. Because of them, the majority of people play in draft leagues, and the intelligent roto blogs have to cater to them.

Oh well....

[Tim Dierkes]

That is a good point...but I will report here on my live auction taking place in late March. Old school.

Personally I hate the ESPN move toward the tiny incredibly shallow roster (1 C, 3 OF, etc.) I mean if you think the above format is bad ESPN's is silly.

[RWS]

I'm not a huge fan of your OF, but I like the sleeper possibility of Luke Scott with 500+ ABs.

Blaylock in the 20th is a steal, and I also like Lilly in the 14th.

For the sake of your team, I'd start pushing Dodgers trade rumors hard so that Matt Kemp will get regular playing time. That would certainly sure up your OF a TON. He reminds me so much of Corey Hart last year leading up to the season.

You should really capitalize on having such depth at the catcher slot, especially with some of the bums in the catching market.

Your roster gives you some flexibility should you want to make some moves to sure up certain spots.

[morandjp]

I think you've got the fantasy hurlers beat but you're gonna have a hard time with the other team. Good luck though!

[GaryW]

Dwelling on the negative because you're hearing more than enough of the positive:

- I can only see myself taking Rollins 6th overall if the first five picks are ARod, Reyes, Hanley, Wright and Holliday.

-I hate both Lee picks; Carlos should be somewhere in the 21-24th pick range and you took him 19, while Derek feels like a homer pick to me considering his second half.

- Martin at 30 feels a touch early to me, though I like the Mauer pick.

- I like Kelly Johnson, but i think you took him early only in that he, Kent, Hill, Pedroia and Hudson are all comparable. i generally wait until there are one or two of those guys left before taking a last-ditch 2B.

- Oswalt's decline and that awful infield defense scares me. I won't be picking him this year.

- Capps is a good enough pitcher to merit that pick, but I wonder if his saves production last year indicates he just won't get enough chances to warrant the 12th round.

[Edwin]

Which analysis are you referring to? It's all on Seamless - the Pujols stuff is right on the front page:

http://mvn.com/mlb-fantasy

and my own take on my draft is in the comments section of Derek's post on the draft.

[frankie]

j-rolls, c-lee, and r-mart were all somewhat of a reach imo.

[sonny4gov]

Why is it that, regardless of the format, your teams always come out looking like they were forged from a 20-team league?
My guess is you're too worried about ADP and too often looking for exceptional "value" from the middle-of-the-road types who offer above average production but have zero upside.
There are just two or three players on this entire roster who haven't already peaked -- Cole Hamels, Russell Martin (although it will be tough to redeem third-round value, despite the two-catcher play) and Matt Kemp.
Capps, too, will surpass previous bests, but he will never be elite with that K rate. And, while Ankiel and Fields will hit some dongs this season, their averages are destined for the gutter.
My advice, since you asked, and I know you're regretting that about now with me, is don't shoot for third-best in everything.
What's wrong with first place?

[SabermetricsGuy]

"My advice . . . is don't shoot for third-best in everything. What's wrong with first place?"

That's the very point. Third place in everything equals 100 points in a 12-team league, which is also known as first place. There's something to be said for building a team that will provide reliable and safe production, rather than forming a roster full of players with high upside but also high volatility. Also, how many players on that roster do not belong in a 12-team league but rather have the scent of 20-team material to you? I don't see any, assuming we're not talking tiny ESPN-style leagues.

[Fake Teams]

If you want to see all the teams in this league, I posted them in the Comments section of this post.

http://www.faketeams.com/story/2008/2/25/12631/1571#10

[yoda]

Getting two top Cs in this format makes perfect sense. Since there are 24 Cs starting in this league and having two top guys is a luxury that no one else will have.

I probably would have focused more on OF. You are going to be scrambling a lot all season. There are only 90 starting spots in MLB and you guys are starting 60.

Overall looks very solid.

[Ratdog]

Hi Tim,
Been a vistor for two years now, but this is my first post.

I see you took Kemp in the 8th. I am seriously considering him for my 6th and final keeper spot. I have a choice between Chipper Jones/Kemp/Konerko. Which way would you go?

Thanks

[RandomScrub]

Hey Tim,

I have my team up over at Rotonomics, if you're interested in showing more of the league teams.

[Tim Dierkes]

Sure throw us the link!

[RandomScrub]

http://rotonomics.blogspot.com/2008/02/sports-blogger-league-my-team.html

Some comments on your team...

I don't think taking two catchers cost you, as your middle infield looks pretty solid and your outfield and pitching are deep enough. I do think you lack power, though Lee and Scott aren't getting their due and both were great picks. Overall, good draft: getting guys like Scott, Ankiel, and Blalock really patched any holes made by waiting on OFs and CIs

The only comment is that you have some risky guys like the aforementioned Scott, Ankiel, Kemp, and McClouth that you are going to need to meet expectations. I doubt all of them will, and I think you really need one more clear 2nd OFer to go to Carlos.

[RandomScrub]

And I ran my team through your projections (some of which I disagree with obviously) and came to 291.12. Glad I made profit at least, I guess a 12% return