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Tuesday Mailbag

Seems like this idea was a hit, judging by the number of questions I received for yesterday's mailbag.  Feel free to send questions to rotoauthority@gmail.com, I'll be here all week.  More queries:

Scott G:  Who of the unexpected SP (Padilla,Vargas,Ohka,Hendrickson,ect) that are off to a good start might for real? What about Kyle Davies?

RotoAuthority: Scott - good question.  Though I don't think Vargas belongs in the "good start" group given his 5 ER in 5 IP season debut.  Same goes for Ohka.  Projections:

Padilla - 4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 157 IP, ranked 109th
Vargas - 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in 165 IP, ranked 57th
Ohka - 4.55 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 192 IP, ranked 116th
Hendrickson - 4.82 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 180 IP, ranked 147th
Davies - 4.33 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 98 IP, ranked 129th

You can see that I only really like Vargas as a mixed league choice from the group.  Davies probably needs his IP projection bumped up though.  A few others whose hot start(s) are for real: Joe Blanton (32nd), Justin Verlander (51st), David Bush (84th), Greg Maddux (30th), and Kelvim Escobar (52nd).  Madson, Penny, and Webb are for real too.

Jeff W: I think it’s an easy call, but someone in my league (5X5) dropped Contreras. I already have Santana, Felix, Schmidt (concerns), Patterson, Webb and Liriano (cross fingers) and would have to drop Brady Clark (whom is a reserve) in order to pick up Contreras. No brainer, right? Am I missing something? I’m concerned about all my pitchers ability to accumulate wins….I’ve just got to pull the trigger, correct? I have the 2nd waiver pick and the guy that picks above me is a huge Yankee fan….he’ll pass on Contreras.

RotoAuthority:  Jeff, not knowing anything else, I'd say yes, pull the trigger.  I've ranked Contreras 33rd among starting pitchers.  Given that Clark is a reserve on your team it's no big loss.

Brett G: Willis aside, the Marlins have a young, unproven pitching staff.  Out of Vargas, Olsen, and Mitre, do any of them have potential to be successful this year in terms of ERA and strikeouts?  (Wins will be hard to come by in south Florida).

RotoAuthority: Vargas, Olsen, and Yusmeiro Petit all have a good chance to have an above average strikeout rate (6.6 per nine innings was the NL average in 2005).  Of that trio, I've projected only Vargas to post an ERA below 4.  I have Olsen at 4.38 and Petit at 4.63.  (Petit is still in the minors but should be called up this year).  For Mitre I see an ERA closer to 5.

Matt H:  Any thoughts on the Baltimore pitchers? Should I ignore the Leo factor and drop Cabrera and Bedard?

RotoAuthority: I like Cabrera, Bedard, and Chen all to post sub-4 ERAs.  I have Lopez at 4.30 and Benson at 4.03.  Cabrera will whiff a batter per inning, and Bedard's K rate will be strong too.  Cabrera, Bedard, and Lopez won't have pretty WHIPs, but Chen should be under 1.30.  If healthy, all five pitchers have a chance to win double digit games.  I also like Chris Ray's chances of saving 30+ games. 

With about 5% of the season in the books, we're nowhere close to judging the Mazzone factor.  Cabrera had a lousy first start, but I still have him valued as a $7 pitcher in a mixed league.  Bedard, maybe $2, though he looked very sharp tonight and those values could end up reversed.  Just stick with whatever projection you were using on draft day, and if someone clearly better comes along then it's OK to drop.

Ross H:  In my 5x5 mixed h2h league with 16 teams, I have Pedro Martinez. Included in this league are 6 Mets fans.  Obviously Pedro didn't have a good start against the Nationals, and along with that didn't look in shape and injuries could be a concern. Of course the Mets fans in my league still think he will be Pedro, but I'm not too sure. Being as I could possibly get a lot for him from one of the Mets fans, do you think now would be a good time to trade him before it's too late? Or do you think it was just a fluke start?

RotoAuthority:  I still think he will be Pedro, but I don't think anyone really knows right now.  I do think it was a fluke start, and you'd probably be selling low if you dealt him now.  If you are receiving a single reliable star position player in return, then make the deal after Pedro has a good start.

Dylan C:  The Ryan Freel situation is driving me nuts.  Will the Reds realize he needs to hit against more than just lefties, or will Womack handle those duties all season long?

RotoAuthority: Me too, man.  Krivsky and Co. are not looking too savvy right now, what with Womack being acquired and leading off and such.  Looks like Freel will be no more than a supersub unless someone gets hurt.

Crash: Some dude in my 12 team points league just dropped Adrian Beltre--is he crazy or crazy like a fox?  I've got Chipper and Melvin Mora at 3B and CI already and would have to drop your boy Mark Ellis, who's riding the pine in my lineup right now, to pick him up.  Thoughts on how Beltre will do this year?

RotoAuthority: I have Beltre as the 16th best 3B with a .263-24-90 season, a $6.51 value.  Given that my boy Ellis could be worth more than twice that, I'd sit tight.  If my AB projection is anywhere near accurate on Ellis, he's had less than 4% of his at-bats so far.  Even if my boldest prediction, his 20+ HRs, is off, he'll still score 100+ runs and hit near .300.   

Mike M: Do you think Phil Nevin will have a comeback season hitting in the middle of
the Rangers line-up...

RotoAuthority: In a word?  Nah.  He's got pretty much the sweetest situation in baseball, but I still see him becoming a platoon player or worse by this summer.  If he hits .260 with 20 HR I'd be surprised.  Erubiel Durazo and Jason Botts are lurking in the minors and I don't think Jon Daniels will be afraid to use them.

Dale B:  I was wondering what your opinion of Ramon Ortiz is.  I was thinking of replacing Anthony Reyes with him but it could be a season long replacement if Reyes stays in the minors or is trades to the AL so I am worried.  Do you think Ortiz will be better than last year or more of the same?  The other choice is Wandy Rodriguez but I am afraid of the ball park with him.

RotoAuthority: I gather that you're in an NL-only league.  Ortiz is a viable option, as I think he can win double digit games with an ERA under 4.50.  Reyes, however, should be more valuable even if he pitches half as many innings.  Given the Ortiz is fairly replaceable and Reyes is not, I would try to keep Reyes stashed on your bench if possible.  The odds of one of the five Cardinals starters breaking down or being ineffective are pretty good, and Reyes may be midseason trade bait given the team's deficiences. 

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