The Proof Is In The Peripherals: May 23-29

Here's this week's look beyond the standard numbers to see which players are at their fantasy peak, have yet to begin their ascent, or are simply Powersaucing along at their expected rate.

Send Him To The Island  Despite the fact that there's a somewhat more important figure in world history that shares the name, I can't hear the name "Locke" without thinking of the iconic Lost character played by Terry O'Quinn.  Without spoiling any plot details (though the show ended three years ago people, get watching!), I'll just say that Lost's Locke appears to be a strong character on the exterior but he's hiding some serious demons within, and his facade slips more and more as the series progresses.  It might not be a bad metaphor for the season of Pirates southpaw Jeff Locke, who has put NL hitters on lockdown (puns!) over nine starts this season.  Lost's Locke, being a man of faith, would probably put no stock in these advanced statistics, but if you're a Jack Shepherd-esque man of science, the advanced metrics might make you think twice about adding the Bucs lefty to your fantasy roster.

Locke has a 2.73 ERA and is only allowing 6.7 H/9, but that's about where the good-looking stats end.  Locke's strikeout and walk rates are nothing special (5.47 K/9 and 3.76 BB/9) and his peripheral metrics indicate that his ERA should be much higher; his FIP/xFIP/SIERA slash line is an across-the-board mediocre 4.48/4.45/4.75.  The left-hander has an 82.5% strand rate and a .224 BABIP, so it's just a matter of time before his Loc...uh, his luck runs out.  I myself streamed Locke for two starts last week and got good results, but I quit while I was ahead and dropped him as soon as that second outing was in the books.  If you still have Locke, see if you can sell high while he's still seen as a wise boar-hunter rather than a button-pushing nut in an underground chamber.

Better In The Next Life, Brotha?  I swear, I didn't intend to go with a Lost theme for this week's column but after noting a guy named Locke, I'm now going to focus on a guy named Desmond.  Pretty freaky, brotha.  Anyway, for a team as stat-savvy as the Rays, you wonder how long they're going to keep putting up with Desmond Jennings in the leadoff spot.  Jennings profiles as your ideal leadoff man --- his minor league numbers promised a player who could get on base, steal bases and even provide double-digit homer power.  While Jennings has delivered with his limited pop and stole 31 bases in 2012, he still hasn't shown much overall progress as a hitter.  After batting just .246/.314/.388 in his first full season, Jennings has actually taken a slight step back this year, with just a .241/.301/.392 line going into Tuesday's action.  Also troubling is the fact that Jennings has only six steals in nine attempts, so the "well, he'll still give me help in the stolen base category" argument doesn't carry much weight.

Jennings is still among the league leaders in runs, as even a .300 OBP player will score pretty often if he's atop the Rays' suddenly-potent lineup.  That on-base percentage and a 22.8% strikeout rate, however, doth not a leadoff hitter make, and Joe Maddon is the kind of manager who won't hesitate to juggle his lineup if he isn't getting results from a player.  Jennings might yet become that kind of well-rounded average/power/run-scoring/speed threat that fantasy owners covet, but I don't think the breakout will happen in 2013.

Don't Mess With DeJesus  David DeJesus took five homers, 24 runs and a .294/.364/.507 line into Tuesday's action and the 33-year-old is on pace for what would easily be his best Major League season.  While I don't think DeJesus will keep up his .872 OPS, I do think he'll continue to be a productive fantasy option, though this is old news to owners in daily-lineup leagues.  DeJesus has always hit well against right-handed pitching (.821 career OPS against righties) and is a great guy to have on your fantasy roster if you're in a league that allows you to sit him whenever he's against a southpaw (career .667 OPS against left-handers).  

Since the Cubs are sticking to a strict platoon with DeJesus, he'll be put in every opportunity to succeed and not have to worry about those confidence-sapping at-bats against lefties.  If you rode DeJesus' hot streak and are now looking to sell, what's the hurry?  One caveat against DeJesus is that he's pretty likely to be traded this summer since the Cubs are going nowhere and are apt to move veterans as part of their rebuilding process.  His production could see a dip in a less hitter-friendly park than Wrigley Field or if he needed time to adjust to his new surroundings, but unless you yourself start playing DeJesus every day, I don't expect a trade would greatly diminish his fantasy value.

Don't Toss The Hos  As a rule, I generally avoid picking up top prospects unless they're just truly special (i.e. Mike Trout) or if one of my starters goes on the DL the same day that a touted youngster happens to get called up to the bigs.  It was for this reason that I stayed away from Eric Hosmer in every single one of my fantasy leagues, and watched bemusedly as the Royals first baseman was taken ahead of several more proven first sackers.  Other managers saw a heralded prospect; I just saw a 23-year-old who had a .663 OPS and didn't give any indication that he was ready for a breakout.  My concerns have thus far been well-founded --- Hosmer is hitting .271/.342/.347 with one measly homer in 161 PA. 

So with this all being said, I'm now about to recommend that you keep Hosmer.  Whaaa?  I wouldn't start him at 1B by any means, but he's worth keeping on the bench in case he starts putting things together.  Hosmer's main issue is that lack of power, as he's hitting nearly three times as many grounders as fly balls and his 19.5% flyball rate is well below his 28.6% career average.  Granted, the "career average" is only from two prior seasons of information but still, you'd think Hosmer will eventually start getting the ball in the air.  His line drive rate is actually up (23%) from his first two seasons and his contact rates are only a couple of percentage points below his career averages, so there is evidence that Hosmer can get going as long as he cuts out the worm-burners.

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This Week In Streaming Strategy: Week 7

Here's another weekly look at some players from around the league who are widely available and largely useful based on their upcoming matchups. 

Hector Santiago, Dylan Axelrod -- Your two widely available starters that have the good fortune to square off against the Marlins this coming weekend. The Marlins are still hitting just .220/.282/.317 as a team, and while that's an unfortunate reality for Miami fans, it's something to exploit in fantasy. I wouldn't fret much over my pitcher facing Dustin Ackley, and the Marlins basically equal out to a lineup full of nine Ackley clones. Sounds good to me.

Jonathan Pettibone -- At some point, the Nationals are going to start hitting. There's too much firepower in that lineup to be this offensively deficient. But for now, they're hitting .214/.281/.333 over the past week. Pettibone has been solid enough thus far that he can be trusted against a struggling lineup, even if his success has been partly smoke and mirrors. Plus, he's facing Dan Haren on Saturday, whose persistent struggles should mean Pettibone will get plenty of run support.

Wily Peralta, John Gast -- Both will face off against the Dodgers in the next four days. As a collective unit, the Dodgers are hitting .222/.274/.306 in the past week. They erupted for a whopping three runs last night -- a feat they've managed to top just four times this month. Hanley Ramirez is on the shelf, and they're going to trot out some combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon and Justin Sellers as the left side of their infield, in all likelihood. Sign me up.

Chris Young -- Young's game has been just a hair of above Buterian (which Webster defines as "having qualities similar to that of Drew Butera") this year, but CBY still sports a healthy .267/.369/.483 triple slash line against left-handed pitching, and he'll face a pair of southpaws in his weekend series with the Astros. No one knows how to give up runs in bunches like the Astros. Erik Bedard and Dallas Keuchel beware.

Julio Teheran -- I assume Teheran's recent play has his ownership soaring through the roof (as it should), but he's still out there in 70 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 80 percent of ESPN Leagues. If his one-run, 8 1/3 inning performance wasn't impressive enough for you Monday, consider that he's facing the Mets and Shaun Marcum next Sunday. The Mets are batting .217/.274/.350 over the past week and .223/.281/.350 over the past two weeks. Teheran, meanwhile, has a 2.41 ERA with two walks in 33 2/3 innings over his past five starts, and the Braves should be good to put up somewhere between four and 38 runs against Marcum.

Andy Dirks -- The Twins have dropped six straight games largely due to their starting pitching, and Dirks will be seeing plenty of it with a four-game series coming up. He'll face a lefty in Scott Diamond one day, so bench him for that. The other three games, however, will be started by Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and one of Samuel Deduno, P.J. Walters or Kyle Gibson. Fantasy owners should root for Walters or Deduno if they enlist Dirks for a weekend of service. He's hitting .293/.339/.517 since May 3 and is notably better against righties than lefties.

Bonus recommendation: If you play on Yahoo where Jhonny Peralta is inexplicably available in 40 percent of leagues, it'd be wise to grab him for the series as well. He's owned in 97 percent of ESPN Leagues, which makes boatloads more sense than Yahoo's 59.1.

David DeJesus -- DeJesus keeps on raking, and he's facing a nice run of right-handed pitching as the weekend draws close, starting with the very hittable Jeanmar Gomez. DeJesus will also get Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto in the hitter-friendly Cincinnati. Whils Bailey's been terrific, Arroyo is always inches from a meltdown, and Cueto certainly didn't look like himself in his return from the DL last night.

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RotoAuthority League Update: What's Different about 2013?

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 3 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8^th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he’s not one of them.

We've now reached a point in the season at which many statistics have begun to stabilize. At the individual player level, we'll still witness wide fluctuations in statistical performances. Leaguewide data, however, is now a good indicator of what you can expect going forward.

With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at the current standings in the RotoAuthority League and see how they compare to past standings in the league. In this way, we might be able to see which statistics have begun more scarce and thus more valuable. With the season 26% complete through Saturday's games, all counting stats were extrapolated to end-of-season totals. Meanwhile, ratio statistics were kept the same. I used median finishes in each category, because mean values tended to be slighltly skewed, as some owners have punted categories in the past.

Accordingly, the file at the bottom links to the median totals in each category across the league for each of the past five years and then for this season's projected statistics.

So what are some interesting trends?

• There has already been plenty of discussion on this topic, but for whatever reason stolen bases are way down this season. How does this affect the game we play? Well, one-trick ponies like Juan Pierre become more valuable. The fact that Everth Cabrera ranks third among shortstops on the ESPN Player Rater makes a tad more sense now. In short, buy your speed now before others in your league fully appreciate those speedsters.
• Batting average continues to decline. Five years ago a .260 AVG provided negative value in the category. We've now reached a point that a .260 AVG actually helps a fantasy owner. There are a few ramifications of this new reality. For one, fantasy owners who took chances on perennially AVG killers J.P. Arencibia and Mark Reynolds are reaping the rewards. With this new baseline AVG around .255, players like this duo may still hurt you in the category but not nearly as much. On the flip side, this also pushes elite AVG performers like Joey Votto even higher up in the first round.  
• Pitching is still dominant across the league. I've always been one to wait on pitching, but that philosophy seems to be for dinosaurs at this point. In ERA and WHIP the categorical targets continue to decline on an annual basis. There's a strong argument to be made for taking Clayton Kershaw at least in the top ten, if not in the top five. If you have to put up an ERA near 3.00 to finish near the top of the category, 230 innings of an ERA around 2.50 puts you a step ahead the rest of the league. Disaster outings by starting pitchers have become even more of a killer in today's Roto game.  

Download Past RotoAuthority League Standings 

Year	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
2008	1120.5	266.5	1106.5	160	0.279	90	98	1192	3.8	1.295
2009	1119	288	1079.5	158	0.273	89.5	103	1230.5	4.04	1.31
2010	1088	258.5	1032	167.5	0.269	98	97	1278.5	3.685	1.26
2011	1082	268.5	1059	168	0.266	93.5	94	1309	3.55	1.24
2012	1091	285	1057	171.5	0.269	95.5	98.5	1327.5	3.725	1.235
2013	1083	277	1017	138.5	0.2665	88.5	98	1317	3.545	1.1195

 

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Stock Watch: Party Like it's 2008

Trade For

The first trio of trade-worthy players hit like gangbusters out of the gate: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, and Todd Frazier. This group hasn't done a whole lot since. If you'd tried to trade for one of these guys after the first week of the season, their owners would have wanted a huge pile of return. Now, though, after sitting through a few weeks of regression to the mean (and still having decent power numbers), all three hitters are showing downward trends and frustrating owners who had their expectations raised in early April. With some hitters, it would be time to give up, but this group has displayed serious hitting skill in the past and all stand a good chance of regressing upward in the coming weeks. Frazier is certainly the riskiest play of the bunch, but he should also come at the lowest cost.

Two more third basemen worth trading for have essentially opposite stories despite similar power numbers: Will Middlebrooks has been awful, aside from the power, and the victim of a .240 BABIP (which can only partially explain his .205 average); Josh Donaldson has been a beast, with a .323 average (thanks in part to a .361 BABIP). While Donaldson is likely to see his average go down and Middlebrooks see his go up, I still think it's a decent time to trade for both. Middlebrooks owners must be disappointed with his performance while Dondaldson's owners are probably pretty surprised. The A's 3B was pretty unheralded coming into the season, and he's a bit old to have been a prospect. That said, his minor league numbers show power at every stop and he's a great candidate to continue to be productive going forward. If his current owner thinks he's a fluke, grab him.

If 3B, 1B, and C eligible players aren't what you're looking for, how about 2B/SS Josh Rutledge? He's shown a useful combination of five homers and five steals, but his batting average has been pretty lousy. His BABIP is .267, which isn't incredibly low...but it is low for someone who gets to play half his games at Coors Field. With summer weather coming to the mountains, it seems reasonable to expect his BABIP to go up, especially at home, and boost his other numbers along with it.

I will now plug one pitcher I always do, and two I never have. It'll be weird.

I'm always telling everyone how wonderful Marco Estrada is (seriously, the guy should send me a thank-you card or something), and his bloated 5.32 ERA isn't deterring me any. Why? Because his xFIP is a healthy 3.93 and his K/BB is 3.38. Of course, that neatly overlooks his hideous HR/9 rate of 2.17, a full HR worse than what he did last year. It seems that his situation is a dichotomy: either he's all washed up, and will continue allowing homers at this pace until his release, or he will cut down on that homer rate and go back to being a good pitcher who allows a few too many homers, Bert Blyleven style. (Okay, he might not be headed for the Hall of Fame, but still.)

Josh Beckett once authored one of the most memorable pitching performances I've ever seen, shutting out the Yankees in Game 6 of the World Series. Ten years ago. He's a different pitcher now, and after watching him scuffle and inflate ERA and WHIP numbers for entire fantasy teams for the last couple years, let's just say the magic seems to have worn off. Currently, he's treating owners to an 0-5 record and a 5.19 ERA. Like Estrada, he's got a much nicer looking xFIP (3.88) and an unsightly HR/9 (1.66). He's also sporting a .323 BABIP against. One key point in which he's improved from last year, though, is his K/9--now at 8.52, the highest it's been at since 2008. Like Estrada, he won't improve if he can't cut down on the homers; like Estrada, he'll be very useful if he does.

Anyone who looks casually at Ervin Santana's 2.79 ERA is going to cry "fluke!" I can't blame them: Santana has been one of the most frustratingly inconsistent pitchers in baseball for the last several years. The one thing he's done reliably is walk about three batters per nine innings. In 2013, he's cut that rate by two-thirds, and his K/BB is among the league leaders at 6.50. Only one other time has Santana had a quality K/BB--2008, when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and posted a 6.0 WAR. There's a good chance his owners feel lucky to have him, and would happily flip him for a useful "reliable" player. Do it, and reap the benefits of a potentially dominant season.

Trade Away

Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells have been two of the most surprisingly productive fantasy players this year, helping the Yankees thrive amid Curtis Granderson's absence. All that is coming to an end, though, as Granderson is back and Hafner and Wells will be sharing time at DH. Deal either away if you still can.

It's always hardest to trade away a hitter proving to be a great bargain. Starling Marte and Carlos Beltran are both knocking the cover off the ball and probably producing better than the first outfielder you drafted. Beltran's got 10 HR's and a .299 batting average that's for real (.306 BABIP), but his fade in last year's second half worries me. With most players, I'd say something about sample size and luck...but Beltran is 36 with a long injury history and I wouldn't be surprised if time took its toll on him last year. 

Marte is a different story, as his power and speed are legitimate, but his .314 average is the product of a .390 BABIP. Even when his average returns to earth (last year it was just .257 with a .333 BABIP) he's going to be a highly useful outfielder, but he's not going to keep producing like he is at the moment. Fangraphs gave the other side of this arugment last week, and if you can get him on your team for a low price, do it. If you can get him off your team for a high price, do that.

Both Beltran and Marte should not be traded except for decently large returns, becuase neither should be expected to see their production crater going forward--just to drop a bit.

Chris Sale is this week's sell high in pitching, as he's thrown 23 consecutive scoreless innings, dominated four starts in a row (including a one-hitter last Sunday), and pitched seven innings or more in six in a row. He's not so much someone to deal before his production goes down, as someone whose current trade value is probably higher than his projected season value, making him a good trade candidate if you need to move pitching for hitting.

Pick Up

Remember Kyle Blanks? Some time ago, he was supposed to be the next (good version of) Adam Dunn. Injuries got in the way, but he's back to playing time with San Diego and still only 26. If you're in the market for a longshot with power upside, Blanks might be your man.

Colby Lewis reportedly has just three more rehab starts to make, which means he could be back in the Show in as little as two weeks. I suggest grabbing him before your competition can get their hands on him, even if that means carrying him on your DL for a while, becuase he was dominant before last year's injury. Even if he isn't dominant this year, pitching for Texas will probably make him useful in wins.

Guess who leads the Majors in K/BB. If you said Cliff Lee (like I did, before I looked it up), you were wrong. It's Bartolo Colon. Seriously, that Bartolo Colon. He's got a K/BB of 13.50! So yes, you can believe in his 1.10 WHIP. If you need help in that category, snap up Colon, despite his mediocre ERA and low K/9.

Last but not least, Ubaldo Jimenez is finally pitching like the guy the Indians traded for. He was so bad to start the season that his ERA is still 5.31, but he's now got 44 K's in 40.2 IP, and has struck ou at least eight batters in each of his last three starts. I don't know if it will continue, but he's well worth gambling on at this point.

 

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Closer Updates: Brewers, Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Red Sox

It's been a pretty good week to be a closer. Sure, we've had blown saves, injuries, and even seen one closer scurry out of the clubhouse in his street clothes, but, hey, no one lost their job. In the up and down world of closing ballgames, not losing your job counts as a win for everyone with less prestige than Mariano Rivera (and, to a lesser extent, Jonathan Papelbon and Craig Kimbrel).

With no job losses to present our favorite kind of opportunities, we can safely ignore relievers and the waiver wire for another week, right? 

Sure you can. But I won't, and neither will your leaguemates. Just because no changes have happened yet doesn't mean there couldn't be trouble brewing. With that said, let's start things off with the...

Brewers

Actually, there isn't really any "trouble" coming down the pike for Milwaukee closer Jim Henderson. There's some bad news for the few John Axford owners still out there, because the Brew Crew just added all-time single-season saves leader Francisco Rodriguez to their beleaguered bullpen. Considering how well Henderson has pitched (10.50 K/9, 5.00 K/B, 1.06 ERA, 1.37 FIP, 95mph fastball), I don't see K-Rod's rusty right arm pushing him out of the ninth any time soon. But considering how unbelievably bad Axford's been (I won't show you the numbers, in deference to his owners), Frankie Rodriguez will likely climb into the top setup slot and become the first backup in line soon. I wouldn't add Rodriguez at this point, but I would drop Ax-man.

Angels

Ryan Madson and I had thought this might be a good time to scoop him up, in case the Angels got overexuberant and handed him the closer's job they signed him for. Well, the latest word is that his rehab stint may last "several weeks." One can understand the Angels playing this one cautiously, but I wouldn't be surprised if they activated Madson earlier than that--if he's healthy and dominant in rehab. Keep an eye on what Madson does in AAA, becuase incumbent closer Ernesto Frieri has had a lot of success but will need to cut down on his 6.23 BB/9 before it catches up with him. (To be fair, that number is cut down from where it was a couple weeks ago when I suggested watching his backups.)

Diamondbacks

Remember when Heath Bell was one of the top closers drafted? Me neither. Arizona GM Kevin Towers did, though, and looked like a fool when he traded to get Bell in the offseason. Maybe we should have trusted Towers' history with relievers, because it's a pretty long track record of success. Thus far, Bell has been outstanding and his fastball velocity and frequency appear to have returned to the levels of the good ol' days in San Diego. Does that mean David Hernandez isn't looming? No. But it does mean that he managed to blow a save Sunday and had enough leash to come back for two in a row Tuesday and Wednesday. If you've got Hernandez, I hope you're counting holds, because Bell has a solid grip on the saves in the desert.

Dodgers

Brandon League is a good-but-not-great pitcher, and he's been pretty shaky so far this season. Kenley Jansen is a dominant strikeout pitcher and he's dominated this season. So why is League still the closer? There are two reasons, one more important than the other. First of all, someone decided that lots of money = infinite money and threw 30 some-odd million dollars at League to close. That's big money for a setup guy and there's some face to be lost by demoting him. That's the lesser reason, I think. The real reason, and the reason they gave all that money to Mr. League in the first place, is the reason they initially traded for him: Jansen's health.

I'm doing a little bit of speculating here, as I am neither a medical doctor nor an employee of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but I think they're giving League as much leash as his performance will allow (maybe more) so that they can keep Jansen as fresh as possible for when they really need him. Earlier this week, Jansen came in to get a big one-out save, but League was back Wednesday to preserve a two-run lead in the ninth. When did Jansen pitch? In the seventh and eighth with a one-run lead--when sabermetricians tell us the Dodgers really needed him.

Hang on to League as long as he's just good enough to justify running out there in the ninth, because I think the Dodgers are trying to maximize their bullpen value by having Jansen available for all (and only) the highest-leverage innings. If that's what they're up to, more teams should do the same.

Red Sox

Junichi Tazawa hasn't pitched since losing the game last Saturday, but, then, the Red Sox haven't brought him any save opportunities since. While the Boston decision makers have seemed confident enough in Tazawa, it looks like Bailey will be coming back no later than Monday, if all goes according to plan. Of course, things may not go according to plan, so don't drop Tazawa just yet. However, if a short-sighted owner happened to drop Bailey, go to your waiver wire and claim him, because he's pitched too good not to return to the ninth inning when he's ready. Plus, the Red Sox probably want to show off whatever stability they can.

Add-Vice

Unfortunately, this isn't a big week to find closing bargains. Bailey (and Tazawa, actually) make the best adds, on the off chance they aren't owned yet in your league. Speaking of League, if frustrated owners have dropped him, I'd pick him up, as there's a good chance he gets to snag the easier save chances in L.A. Finally, "several weeks" is a long time for a rehab assignment, but if you've got space on your DL it might be a good idea to lock up Madson. The Angels did sign him with the intent of using him to close, and they may still go that route when he comes back to the Bigs. Of course, they may not, so if you play the wait-and-see game and lose, don't beat yourself up.

And by the way, don't forget to check out @CloserNews on Twitter for up-to-the-minute information, and our up-to-date Closer Depth Chart, for each team's stopper and top backups.

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Buy High-deas and Sell These Low-lifes

Obviously, selling high and buying low is traditionally a good strategy for real sports (if you own a sports team), and also fantasy sports (if you pretend to own a sports team). Flipping a hot player when he’s at his peak or snatching up a slumping superstar when an owner is fed up is usually a good idea (whether you're a real-life owner or just living vicariously). But sometimes a player is finally living up the hype and coming into his own, and other players have some “name value” but are truly so worthless that you might as well flip them for whatever you can get -- as opposed to dropping them outright or holding onto them and praying they returns to previous form.

Buy These High-deas

Jean Segura

Segura has probably hit two more homers and stolen another base since I started writing this sentence. Dude is ON FIRE, and Segura owners must be wondering how long his power is going to last (7 HRs in 154 PAs). While ESPN has shown that 5 of his 7 bombs has been “just enoughs,” the fact that 6 of them have been to the opposite field is promising. But here’s why I think you should buy high on Segura, especially in roto leagues - even if his power dissipates, he’s on pace to steal over 50 bags. He has the most stolen bases in the majors... and he didn’t steal his first base until his 11th game! He could easily swipe 70 bags this year if he stays healthy, and batting in front of some combination of Braun/Gomez/Ramirez will always mean lots of runs.

Manny Machado

I wish there was fantasy baseball for defense, because Machado looks like the best defensive third baseman in the league. But with a .329/.367/.515 batting line and 5 bombs and 5 stolen bases, Machado looks like the superstar he was hyped up to be in the minors. Overshadowed by the Harper/Trout phenomenon of last year, Machado has looked comfortable at the plate ever since he was promoted, and rarely looks off-balance or swings at a bad pitch. While is average will most likely be sub-.300 by the end of the season, the power/steal combo along with close to 100 runs/RBIs make Machado well worth buying high on now, especially in keeper leagues. If you have Hanley Ramirez, offer him up for Machado as soon as he returns. If you have Mark Reynolds, offer him up for Machado right now. I’d even consider flipping a Wright/Panda/Beltre-type for Machado plus another piece. The kid is that good.

Carlos Gomez

In one of my leagues, the guy who drafted “The Other Car-Go” was mocked mercilessly when he scooped him up in the 5th round. Well, ever since draft day, he’s been sending out weekly smack-talk updates about how well Gomez is performing, and I can’t blame him. After years of underperforming, Gomez has surprised everyone in the universe by picking up right where he left off last year, tallying 6 HRs and 8 SBs in only 36 games, all while batting a ridiculous .368/.408/.632. Of course his BABIP of .439 is unsustainable, but like Segura, Gomez isn’t going to lose his speed, and is on pace for 33 SBs.  Combine that with even 15 HRs on the year and you’ve got yourself a 2nd or 3rd round fantasy stud. And chances are he’ll have at least 20 HRs and more than 33 SBs (last year he swiped 37 in only 137 games), which would put him at elite status. I know it's hard to stomach after so many sub-par years, but I’m buying high on Gomez.

Sell These Low-lifes

Adam Dunn

Dunn looks old and slow. Yes, he has 7 HRs, which isn’t terrible, but he’s batting .137 and is on pace to drive in less than 60 runs! I’d wait until Dunn hits a couple of home runs, then try to flip him to an owner desperate for power for a mid-tier starter or even a prospect that could help your team down the road. Dunn is only going to help you in one category at this point, and while HRs are getting harder to come by, there are still some cheap sources of power out there as well - Pedro Alvarez, Mark Reynolds, etc.

Tim Lincecum

His last outing, Timmy went 7 strong and only gave up 2 hits to the Braves - sell, sell, sell while you can! I would flip Lincecum for just about any other decent starter at this point... perhaps offer a package deal for someone like Corbin or a slumping starter like Ian Kennedy. Lincecum has only his name to rely on at this point, and I’d cash in on that while I could.

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The Proof Is In The Peripherals: May 16-22

Given the month, it only makes sense to pay tribute to Curtis Mayfield with this week's category titles.  I didn't use "Talking About My Baby" since I dunno, as much as we root for our fantasy players, referring to them as my babies feels a little weird.  Maybe it'll happen if Vince Vaughn's character from Swingers ever takes over this column, though then the focus will switch from fantasy baseball to NHL 94 player analysis.

Anyway, I'm babbling.  Let's get to this week's notes...

Keep On Keepin' On: Norichika Aoki.  Basically the only flaw I can point to in Aoki right now is his mediocre steal rate (four CS in 10 attempts this season) but unless you're in a league that penalizes getting thrown out, Aoki is a force right now.  He's hitting .299/.377/.445 with 21 runs scored and even four homers, a performance that stands out all the more considering that Aoki really was pretty ice-cold in April after a big opening week. 

I'm tempted to consider that Aoki is too streaky to be counted on for consistent fantasy performance, but even at his worst he's still getting on base and scoring a ton of runs atop Milwaukee's lineup.  Last season's 30 steal performance might be too much to ask for again (Aoki stole 45 bases combined in his last three years in Japan) but as a run-scoring, high-average, high-OBP third outfielder, Aoki is your man.  If he does pick up his theft rate, it's all gravy.

Hard Times: Jay Bruce.  I've never been a big Bruce fan in fantasy ball* simply because he's not a reliable everyday outfielder given his poor career splits away from Great American Ballpark (.710 OPS) and against left-handers (.748 OPS).  These splits were still apparent last season when Bruce his a career-best 34 homers and 99 RBI, numbers that no doubt led him to be drafted a few rounds higher than he should've this past spring.

* = huge Bruce fan in music, however.  His concert with the E Street Band in Toronto last August was maybe the best concert I've ever seen in my life.  Three-and-a-half hours of music!  29 songs!  A 40-minute encore!  No, I'm not getting off-topic, Springsteen and baseball go together hand in hand!  He sings about a speedball in "Glory Days" which is totally a real pitch.  Sure.  Whatever. 

Bruce owners are paying for their mistake now.  The Reds right fielder has just three homers to go with a .258/.306/.403 line entering Tuesday's action, plus a league-worst 52 strikeouts.  He's simply having trouble getting the bat on the ball right now, as evidenced by the fact that he's swinging at more pitches than ever (52.5%, up from his career 48.7%) and connecting on a career-low 78.8% of pitches in the strike zone, well below his 84.3% career average.  Moving Bruce now would definitely qualify as a sell-low situation but there's evidence Bruce could sink even lower; his BABIP is a whopping .365.  When the balls are falling your way over six weeks and you're STILL not hitting, that's a bad sign.

Future Shock: Matt Moore.  The Rays southpaw had a textbook quality start on Tuesday, allowing three runs on three hits and two walks over six innings, striking out eight Red Sox batters in the process.  You could say that three runs was a lot of damage given how impressive the rest of Moore's line was, perhaps making this the first time that Moore hasn't been kissed by Lady Luck during a start. 

Moore entered his start with a 2.14 ERA in real life but a lot of shaky peripherals --- a 4.46 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, 4.23 SIERA, 4.9 BB/9 and a BABIP of just .196.  Let's also not overlook his 96.1% strand rate, which is comically high even for a strikeout pitcher like Moore.  Roto Authority's Alex Steers McCrum noted Moore as a sell-high candidate even a few weeks ago, so there's still time to move him for some nice value before he finally comes back to earth.  It's not like Moore even pitched that badly against Boston but perhaps it's the beginning of his regression period.  Better that Moore regresses on someone else's roster, not yours.

Move On Up: Edwin Jackson.  It's pretty apparent by now that the universe hates the Cubs, so it's par for the course that their big $52MM offseason signing is 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA through his first eight starts in the blue pinstripes.  Jackson is one of those guys who I've always felt was properly rated by fantasy owners --- sure, there's a general sense he should have pitched better over the years, yet most fantasy owners have viewed Jackson as a back-of-the-rotation guy even when he's at top form. 

Therefore, if you've somehow stuck with Jackson as your fifth man despite his brutal numbers, you're probably making a mistake given how you can always find a decent fifth starter (even a short-term streamer) on the waiver wire....yet your mistake won't harm you since Jackson should be able to turn this around.  Jackson's ugly ERA has been inflated by bad luck in the form of a .333 BABIP and a 54.7% strand rate, as his FIP/xFIP/SIERA line is a much more reasonable 3.50/3.70/3.90.  Maybe Matt Moore is stealing all of Jackson's good fortune.

It's a fair assumption that Jackson will soon be back doing his usual Edwin Jackson things, so if you've shown this much patience with a replaceable fifth starter, you might as well hang onto him and reap some benefits.  Of course, this all becomes moot if the Cubs relegate Jackson to the bullpen, since really, you get so few opportunities in life to have a $52MM long reliever.  #GoatCurse

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This Week In Streaming Strategy: Week 6

Here's a look at some beneficial matchups (on both sides of the ball) for players who are owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo and/or ESPN leagues...

Adam Dunn, Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo -- The White Sox have a weekend series coming against the homer-prone Angels' rotation, and they'll be getting the two chief offenders in Joe Blanton and Jason Vargas. Dunn's stretch of futility is reaching legendary proportions, but the Angels could easily represent a cure for that. He hit a 415 foot homer to center field on Monday against the Twins... the only problem was that Aaron Hicks saw fit to pull it back over the wall. The White Sox may have the weakest offense in the AL, but they're facing one of the worst pitching staffs in the game. If you can stomach owning Big Donkey or Tank for a few days (and let's be honest, that's a tall order), a few cheap home runs might be in the offing.

Brandon McCarthy, Mike Leake -- Neither right-hander has been exactly dominant this season (McCarthy, in particular, has been brutal), but you'd have to be the 2013 version of Roy Halladay to get rocked by the Fish (sorry, Halladay owners). There are Little League World Series teams that pack more punch than the Marlins' Stanton-free lineup. The Fish have scored 10 runs in their past six games. Five times this month, they've scored one run or been shut out. McCarthy's scoreless eight-inning outing should be a confidence booster in him, as well.

Dan Haren -- Ok, ok, ok -- Haren't not available in 50% or fewer of either ESPN or Yahoo Leagues. He's owned in fewers than 75 percent of each, though, and he happens to be available in a pair of my leagues, so I felt the urge to include him. Haren's season has largely been a nightmare, but he's posted a 3.15 ERA with a 12-to-2 K/BB ratio over his past three turns. He faces a Padres lineup that has a .692 OPS against right-handed pitching on Sunday. There's definite risk involved with Haren, but if you're looking for a spot-start at the end of a head-to-head matchup you could do a lot worse.

Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner -- The Yankees will face a long run of right-handed pitching (with the exception of Mark Buehrle) including Aaron Harang and Ramon Ortiz (I swear, I'm not making that up... he's seriously alive). Better yet, they'll be playing the games at Yankee Stadium. Overbay has an .814 home OPS and a .974 OPS against right-handers, compared to .736 and .286, respectively. Hafner's home OPS of 1.037 and .969 OPS against right-handers dwarf his marks on the road (.772) and against lefties (.720).

Bronson Arroyo (Phillies) -- Demonstrating the best command of his career (1.4 BB/9), Arroyo is coming off a 6 2/3 innning scoreless outing against the Brewers and will face a Phillies team that is hitting .250/.308/.378 against right-handed pitching. His Saturday matchup carries risk, but as is the case with Haren, head-to-head owners could make far more outlandish risks as they look for late-week points.

Eric Stults -- Stults draws the Nationals on Saturday -- a team with a .587 OPS versus left-handed pitching as I write this. Jayson Werth is currently on the shelf, and there's a chance Bryce Harper could be sidelined for a few days (that's me speculating following last night's collision, of course). Stults' K/BB numbers are troubling, particularly of late (9 walks, 10 Ks in May), but the Nats are 25 points worse than any other club in OPS vs. lefties. Plus, Stults' 4.57 ERA on the season is 58 points higher than his 3.99 FIP. There are the makings of a good matchup here.

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RotoAuthority League Update: Top Draft Day Values

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 3 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8^th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he’s not one of them.

We're nearly one quarter our way through the season, so I figured it might be a good time to see which players have been the most valuable draft picks to date. This naturally begs the question: what makes one draft pick better than another? Well, ultimately the goal of this game is to get the best bang for your buck. In short then, it's all about value.

Now we have to be careful here in how we go about determining value. A player who outperforms his 26th round draft selection by 5 rounds is useful; however, a player who outperforms his 12th round draft slot by 5 rounds is far more valuable. This stems from the fact that the relationship between player values and draft position is not linear but rather logarithmic.

Todd Zola did some excellent work on this topic prior to Opening Day. As the fantasy expert states, "What we want to do is set a concrete boundary for players to be considered the same according to projected dollar value. All you need to do is take the round in which the player is ranked, multiply by three and that many players above and below the player in question are almost always within $2." Zola makes the link between draft round and the number of players within $2 in value, a rather negligible variance. Using his rule of thumb, a player drafted in round 5 will have 3 x 5 = 15 players with basically the same value.

This raises a few interesting revelations. Above all else, this reinforces the idea that on Draft Day we really shouldn't be tied to our dollar values. For one, dollar values are based on projections, which are really just estimates. If you have a guy ranked as the 10th best available player in Round 5 but you have high hopes for him, just draft him. Again, there's really not much difference in the other players you might have ranked ahead of him.

More importantly, though, the later you are in a draft, the greater the number of interchangeable commodities. This stands to reason; after all, the handful of players capable of going 30-30 will be scooped up by the end of Round 1 (except for Affordable Cargo, hat tip on the nickname to the PianoMan). In round 10, however, the best you can probably hope for in a power-speed contributor is to get double-digit totals in both HR and SB. Then again, unlike in Round 1 there are far more than just a few players who can provide what you want; indeed, you can find at least a dozen or so players who fit that description.

With this in mind then, it makes sense that if you plot the dollar values of players against draft selection, the graph is not linear. Now we all know Miguel Cabrera is a monster, but studs like him truly are leaps and bounds ahead of the pack. In any given season in a 12-team league, one can expect about 10 players worth between $30 and $40. If we use the same $10 window and examine players between $20 and $30, though, we'll find about 40 players. Continue this process on to look at players worth from $0 to $10, and you'll get well over 100 players. The point is the deeper you get into the player pool, there are fewer and fewer differences among the player values.

So back to the matter at hand: how do we determine value? Well, one method would be to simply subtract draft slot from current ranking on the ESPN Player Rater. As I've shown, though, this oversimplifies the process. Now if the RotoAuthority League employed an auction, it would make things a tad easier because we could simply subtract auction price from current dollar value. Unfortunately, it's still a straight draft league. On the bright side, however, thanks to excellent work by Bill Macey at BaseballHQ, we can convert draft slots into auction values using a logarithmic formula.

Here then are the Top 10 Draft Day Values thus far in the RotoAuthority League with draft selection in parentheses:

1. Jean Segura (242)

2. Starling Marte (193)

3. Manny Machado (215)

4. Chris Davis (134)

5. Carlos Gomez (93)

6. Matt Harvey (118)

7. Shelby Miller (256)

8. Coco Crisp (206)

9. Paul Goldschmidt (47)

10. Anthony Rizzo (67)

So now onto the more important question: which of these guys have the staying power to finish the year with truly breakout performances?

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Stock Watch: It's a Good Week to Buy your Mom a First Baseman

As the title says, there are three intriguing 1B options on most waiver wires; in addition there's another pair who look like great candidates to improve as their BABIP normalizes. Those aren't the only players who might deserve to change hands in the next weeks, whether you're trading for slumping ace pitchers or trading away young phenoms who pitch the best game we're likely to see this season.

By the way, happy Mother's Day, Mom!

Trade For

If you had R.A. Dickey  and Cole Hamels in your rotation last year, your pitching was probably pretty good. This year...not so much. In Dickey's case, his strikeouts and velocity are down, while his homers and walks are up. It's an ugly mix, to say the least. So why do I recommend trading for the knuckleballer, when his problems appear not to be luck-related? Well, it's because of the inherent unpredictability of knuckleballs and those who throw them. It's natural to expect a higher degree of variance in their starts than in most. I'm not willing to give him a pass for his poor performance...but I'd be more than happy to buy low on him. 

Hamels is, to me, an even easier pitcher to trade for. Of course, you're less likely to find an owner willing to give up on him at this point than you are with Dickey. Hamels's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, and one can see from his FIP (4.42) and xFIP (4.15) that his mediocre ERA is of his own doing. That said, it's only been eight starts and he's been a world-class pitcher for five years now. I think he's earned more than a little benefit of the doubt, especially considering that his fastball velocity is actually up from last year.

Adam LaRoche is a fixture on any May trade-for or pick-up list. I'm not normally one to take a player's historical month-by-month splits very seriously, but with LaRoche it's appropriate to make an exception. In eight years (I added his partial 2004 and 2011 seasons into one), he's got a .214 average in 866 PA. He's a slow starter. He's starting to heat up. Nab him, especially if he's got a frustrated first-time owner.

Michael Morse was supposed to lose power in Safeco Field, and with it, most of his value. I, for one, was pretty skeptical about drafting him. Well, he's got nine homers and a .471 SLG in his first 30 games. The power seems to be there. What isn't is the average: he's dragging fantasy squads down with a mark of just .227. The good news is that he's suffering from a lousy .243 BABIP that's likely to come up. When it does, he ought to look a lot like the guy he was for the last season and half. Pretty useful.Oh, and he's had even worse luck on the road than at his much-maligned home park.

Trade Away

Jon Niese looked like a great pickup before the season, and he didn't start off terribly. Well, things have gotten terrible, as his K/9 has dropped from a healthy 7.33 last year to just 4.61 so far this year. Worse yet, his last couple performences have brought his K:BB ratio to 21:22. Exactly what's going on, I don't know. If you can include him as part of a larger package (and therefore sneak him onto someone else's team), do it. He's not a drop just yet, but he's getting unstartable.

Patrick Corbin is someone I've recommended picking up, but now is the time to send him packing. With a sparkly 5-0 record and a miniscule 0.38 HR/9, he's been a great fantasy pitcher. His track record, however, suggests that he should be a good fantasy pitcher going forward, and really nothing more. His strikeout and walk numbers support that thesis (6.99 K/9; 2.33 BB/9). If you can get a closer or a solid hitter for him, make the deal.

There is little in fantasy more difficult than trading a young player who could be a superstar in the making. The risk is very large--and all the more since it comes with the shame of trading away a player just as he's breaking out. All that said, the risk of standing pat is high too. Young players go up and down, sometimes looking like they've reached their full potential when they still have serious growing pains to get through. As such, I recommend trading Manny Machado, particularly if you have other serviceable 3B/CI options. He's been great so far, but a .351 BABIP suggests that he might not be this good yet. Rookies and young players with bright futures often command extra-high trade values, so if you can get a solid starting position player or a second/third tier SP, I would move Machado.

Shelby Miller just threw a perfect game, so trade him. (I know, I know, he allowed a hit first, but 27 outs in a row is still 27 in a row.) His trade value will never be higher and even the best rookie pitchers are rarely this good. Yes, I do think Miller will have a great rest of the season, command and deserve an ace-level draft pick next year and everything...but there is still a very good chance that you can get more value in a trade than he'll provide over the next couple months. If you can get the same return that you'd expect from a second-tier pitcher, like Max Scherzer, I think you'll be getting the better end of the deal, but aim higher and see how much you can get.

Pick Up

Luke Scott (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.2%/CBS: 5%) is hitting the ball well for the Rays and could be a very nice CI addition in Yahoo! leagues based on his history of hitting for power. Owners in other formats may be less interested, as he only qualifies at DH/Utility. Mitch Moreland (Y!: 11%/ESPN: 20.1%/CBS: 34%) has hit is well enough to quiet the rumors about Jurickson Profar moving up and Ian Kinsler moving over to first base for the moment. Lyle Overbay (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.4%/CBS: 6%) has a long history of marginal-ness, but he's certainly hitting well for the moment. Mark Teixeira may well squeeze him out of a job, but he's a good stopgap while he's hot.

Speaking of hot, Scott Kazmir (Y!: 16%/ESPN: 5.8%/CBS: 39%) is cooking with gas again. If he can regain any of his past magic, he'll be a great addition to any staff, especially those in need of strikeouts. If he can regain all of it....

Marcell Ozuna (Y!: 20%/ESPN: 12.7%/CBS: 29%) is hitting the cover off the ball for the Fish, to the tune of a .342/.390/.553 slash line. His .387 BABIP says that won't last long, but he doesn't have to win a batting title to be worth picking up, especially in deeper leagues.

Stay Away

Jeff Locke is gaining some traction as a pickup, but that's not a bandwagon you want to get on. His 2.95 ERA looks nice, but his K/9 (4.99) is way too close to his BB/9 (4.31) and his FIP (4.86). Nothing to see here.

This is a no-brainer for most, but just in case you were tempted, know that you really don't want Jason Marquis. His 5.15 FIP and 4.09 BB/9 don't tell me he can keep winning games.

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Closer Updates: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets

If you play in a highly-focused league with daily changes, there's a good chance you missed out on this week's pair of newly-minted closers. (Playing in two such leagues, I know how you feel.) If you don't want to miss out next time (and there's always a next time), move to the East Coast. Or, better yet, Nova Scotia, which I believe gets up an hour earlier. If that's too much trouble, just check @CloserNews on Twitter for up-to-the-minute information. All the time. 

If you're lucky enough to play in a weekly-changes league, then the first two capsules are for you, not to mention our up-to-date Closer Depth Chart, for each team's stopper and top backups.

Diamondbacks

Whether some underlying injury was why J.J. Putz struggled so much this season, I couldn't say. But I can say that he's out (mercifully, I guess), and out for a while. He's got a sprained ligament in his elbow, an irritated nerve, and something called a "strained flexor pronator." That all sounds bad enough to me, but the pitcher had to announce that he'd "never felt anything like that." Ouch. The bad news is, drop him, because he won't be back any time soon. The good news is, at least you won't be carrying him around on your roster for a month like Jason Motte, wondering whether to drop him or not.

So, who's replacing Putz? None other than Heath Bell. That "proven closer" tag comes in handy, doesn't it? Bell's ERA and WHIP are nothing to write home about so far this season, but he's struck out 20 batters in 14.3 IP, against only three walks. I don't have extreme confidence in Bell, but he is off to a promising start.

The rumors are a bit jumbled, but there seems to be a chance that David Hernandez will be mixed in sometimes, "depending on matchups," which seems odd, since both pitchers are right-handed. Maybe what they mean is that Bell will get the easy save chances, while Hernandez is brought in for the times Arizona is actually worried they might lose the game. Of course, if Bell falters, Hernandez will be quick to take the job. Matt Reynolds has two saves so far, but seems to be on the outside looking in at this point.

Red Sox

Joel Hanrahan. Andrew Bailey. Joel Hanrahan. Junichi Tazawa. Such is the list of Boston's closers this year, in order. For the moment, both Bailey and Hanrahan are sitting on the DL, and it's Tazawa's chance to shine. Hanrahan will be on the shelf for an unknown, long period of time. He's a very safe drop. Bailey will be out too, and it's hard to say at this point for how long, as the Red Sox don't have a timetable for him just yet. Keeping him seems worthwhile in most formats, as he stands a good chance at reclaiming the job whenever he does return.

Getting to Tazawa, however, pick him up! He's been lights-out so far, and Boston is playing extremely well. There's a good chance that he's one of baseball's most productive closers for the duration that he holds the job. Just in case he falters, his elder countryman Koji Uehara would presumptively step in.

Cubs

This is the last we'll see of the Cubbies in this space for a long while, since they've officially named one of baseball's most reliable relievers their closer for the moment and the future. That's right, Kevin Gregg will continue to hold the job, even when Kyuji Fujikawa returns from the DL. Oh wait, Gregg is one of baseball's least reliable performers? If he's still available (not likely), pick him up, but don't get too excited. If you're carrying Fujikawa in one of your DL slots, you can jettison him.

Dodgers

Brandon League entered the year as a man set up to fail, with flamethrower Kenley Jansen for a setup man. The thinking all preseason seemed to be that provided Jansen showed himself healthy, League would lose the job at the first plausible excuse. Well, here we are, at that first plausible excuse, and there are rumblings about making a change. Manager Don Mattingly has called the situation "a mess," a statement with more truth in it than I had expected to find, as League has given up at least a run in five of his last six appearances, while striking out only seven batters in 13.3 IP and sporting an ERA of 5.40. A change would be understandable. If Jansen is actually unowned in your league, I'd say it's time to pick him up.

Mets

Bobby Parnell should remain the closer when Frank Francisco comes back from the DL, though situations like this always seem to get dicey. Parnell owners shouldn't panic, because the closer has been superb this season, to the tune of a 1.29 ERA, an 0.57 WHIP, and nearly a strikeout per inning. Not that the Mets have given him many opportunities to save games, but he has managed to blow two of them compared to just three successes. Sometimes considerations like these factor more than they should in managerial decisions, which might be why Terry Collins left enough wiggle room for Francisco returning to the ninth after he settles in. He's not a good add by any means, but Parnell owners will want to monitor him.

Add-Vice

Bell should be the top add, not because he's the best, but because it seems quite clear that Putz will be on the shelf for a long time. If Bell can run with the job, the job will be there for him. Gregg would be next, as he's got a similar situation...but he's an even more unpredictable pitcher. Tazawa should be grabbed as well, though he is much more of a short-term buy, which is great if you own Bailey or play in a standard Roto league. Jansen should be picked up as well, as League really doesn't look long for the closing gig. You could make the case for picking Jansen over Tazawa, as when he gets the ninth, it will probably take an injury for Jansen to give it up. Francisco is someone to keep an eye on, as is David Hernandez. 

 

 

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Prospect Prospectin': Stud Stashin' Edition

If teams wait until late May to call up their prospects, they retain control over them for an extra year. If teams wait until the mid-June Super Two cutoff to call up their prospects, they can save themselves some money during the player’s prime years.  That is not as important a consideration of whether or not to call up a player than say, big league readiness, but it’s a more significant consideration than most GM’s admit - after all, they’re basically taking money out of players’ pockets, so they don’t have much incentive to brag about it. But there’s no denying that the players below could help their teams immediately if they were called up, and it’s just a matter of time before it happens. Chances are most of these players are already owned in your fantasy league, but if they’re still out there and you have room, I would suggest scooping one up. Worst-case scenario is you have some tempting trade bait for that one guy in your league obsessed with youngsters (every league has one), and can trade one if one if your starters goes down.

And how much good is Chris Denorfia doing on your bench, anyway? Or Mark Ellis after you picked him up when he was hot for about two games? Drop those types of dudes for one of these studs. When your opponents see that name in the add/drop notification box, they’ll think, “Damn. I thought I could wait a little longer to scoop him up.” Don’t be the guy who waited too long.

The Super Three

These three guys are the top prospects in baseball and are going to be compared to Bryce and Trout once they get called up, which is unfair to them but inevitable I guess. And who knows? Maybe they’ll come up and rake just like those two. One can only hope...

Wil Myers

Damn you and your hot streak, Matt Joyce! I was hoping to see Myers in the bigs by now, but the Rays are extremely careful with their prospects. Myers has nothing left to prove in the minors. Period. He hit .314 with 37 bombs last year (albeit in the PCL), and is raking again this year. He is my #1 impact prospect in baseball this year and the Rays will have to call him up by late summer, if not sooner. I doubt their lineup can keep hitting they way they are (12th most runs in baseball), and are going to need an extra bat.

Oscar Taveras

Chances are Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday hit the disabled list since you started reading this post. Sure, they can move Craig to the outfield and give Adams first-base once one of those guys goes down, but with his combination of power and speed, the Cards will have to give Taveras a shot at some point soon. He doesn’t walk very often, but Oscar could be an impact-player soon as he ges the chance.

Jurickson Profar

I listed Profar after the first two guys because even though he’s seen big-league action already and they haven’t, I think he’ll make the least impact of the three this year. With Mitch Moreland hitting lights out, there’s little chance they’ll move Kinsler to first to make room for Profar. And with Elvis Andrus’ 8-year, $120 million contract extension, clearly he’s not going anywhere. Nonethelss, Profar is a special talent that could make an impact immediately when he’s called up (again). I got a chance to see him in spring training this year, and he looked damn impressive, notching base hits from each side of the plate. The youngster has struggled a bit this year in Triple-A, but is striking out a lot less and walking more. That's a good sign. Profar should be owned in all leagues, especially with Kinsler’s injury history...

Pirate Booty

The Pirates are going to be incredibly exciting in a couple years, once their 1-2 pitching punch has arrived in the bigs. Who knows? They may even have a .500 record someday.

Gerritt Cole

Cole was the number one draft pick in 2011 and reached Triple-A in his first year in the minors. He has a miniscule 2.45 ERA so this year and there’s no question he’s ready for the show. And with Jonathan Sanchez being released and James McDonald’s injury, it seems like the Pirates could make a move soon, especially if they stay close in the pennant race (they’re only three games behind the Cardinals as of today). Cole’s fastball can hit triple digits, and he also has a nasty slider; once his changeup or curveball become as reliable as his first two pitches, there’s no telling how good he could be. This year he has walked too many batters and not struck out enough, but if the Pirates can stay competitive they’ll have no option but to call up their top prospect.

Jameson Taillon

This is more of a keeper league suggestion since Cole will most certainly be called up before Taillon (if only because Taillon just suffered a left shin contusion after being hit with a comebacker). Cole probably gets more accolades, but Taillon is an absolute monster in his own right, making the two of them the best pitching prospect duo in baseball (sorry, Mariners). Drafted right out of high school, Taillon stands 6'7"and can throw 99 mph. This season in Double-A he’s striking out over a batter per inning and sports a 3.26 ERA (and a 2.61 FIP). Many experts think Taillon won’t be up until 2014, but if the Pirates are still contending in August, you can bet they’ll take a long, hard look at the hard-throwing Texas native that Baseball America ranked the number-15 prospect in baseball.

Pick him up, then once Taillon makes it to the big leagues, celebrate by tying one on with a glass of Jameson.

 

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The Proof Is In The Peripherals: May 9-15

I'm sure leagues like this already exist but man, wouldn't it be trippy to play in a league that only counted advanced metrics?  Forget about homers, runs, wins or ERA....this theoretircal League Of Fortune would only be scored on BABIP, SIERA, FIP, etc.  No longer would you complain only how your fantasy team "should" be doing, but rather, you could say things like, "man, my fantasy team should Should be doing better!" and be both correct and sounding like an idiot at the same time.  If only, if only. 

Anyway, speaking of being correct and sounding like an idiot, here is your weekly dose of statistical analysis delivered in my usual buffoonish manner.

Thine Eyes Deceive You: Starling Marte.  The young Pirates star was leading the league in hits entering Tuesday's play but was also near the top of the charts in another, more telling category --- Marte's .398 BABIP is a sign that some regression is on its way.  For all Marte's gifts, he was never a big on-base guy even in the minors so once his grounders stop finding holes and his fly balls stop leaving the yard at a 20.8% rate, Marte is due for some hard times.  The good thing is, though, Marte's prospect pedigree and his good stolen base numbers should make him a very solid piece of trade bait; just don't go overboard and try to move Marte for an established superstar outfielder. 

Of course, from a pity standpoint, I hope Marte keeps it going all year long, since Pirates fans deserve some good luck after the last couple of decades.  One can't escape facts, however, and thus I hate to say that Marte's awesome start to the season seems destined to fizzle out.  You might say that a big season for Marte...(puts on sunglasses) isn't in the stars.  YEAHHHHHH

Move It Along, Nothing To See Here: Mike Moustakas.  In fact, if Bucs fans want to see a worst-case scenario for what the rest of Marte's 2013 campaign could look like, take a gander at the Moose.   The Royals third baseman got off to a great start in 2012, posting a .909 OPS through April, but slowly declined throughout the rest of the season.  He held it together for a respectable .749 OPS over the next two months and then really hit the skids, hitting just .221/.264/.357 over his last 77 games and finishing with a .296 OBP for the season.  The new season hasn't provided a fresh start, as Moustakas has just a .565 OPS in 2013. 

Plate discipline is one of the hardest skills for young hitters to master and don't forget, Moustakas is just 24 years old --- he might need a little more seasoning before you (or the Royals) can count on him as a reliable everyday option.  If you drafted Moustakas hoping he'd figure it out this season, I'd cut bait now and look elsewhere at the hot corner.  I say this despite the fact that Moustakas actually has a career-best (at any level) 9.6% walk rate and his BABIP is only .218 but I question if these are signs of a forthcoming breakout this season or just signs that Moustaskas will eventually be a worthwhile big leaguer down the road.  I mean, as Alex Gordon taught us, Royals prospects have to break our hearts for at least three or four years before finally delivering, right?

Move It Along, Nothing To See Here (Besides Something): Anthony Rizzo.  There was a mass evacuation of the Rizzo bandwagon a couple of weeks ago when the Cubs first baseman was hitting a measly .173/.256/.420 following the Cubs' 4-3 win over the Marlins on April 25.  Rizzo proceeded to post a 1.350 OPS over his next 48 PA, however, so I think we can safely hold off on calling Rizzo a bust and, I dunno, blaming Steve Bartman for it, somehow.  Rizzo should finish the year somewhere in the .850-.900 OPS range, since while his 23.7% home run rate is sure to come down, the fact that he's hitting more fly balls overall (a rather large 42.7%) won't hurt him much in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.  Throw in the homers, throw in a healthy walk rate that will be helped by a healthy dose of free passes (I mean, have you SEEN the rest of the Cubs lineup?) and Rizzo should be good to go for the rest of the season.  My only hesitation is that I'd sit him against a quality left-handed starter, so hopefully you have a decent first base backup on your fantasy roster. 

Look Closer: David Price.  If you're a Price owner who is beginning to panic over your man's 6.25 ERA, breathe easy.  The Cy Young winner's numbers are inflated by two brutal starts against the Indians and Rockies (17 ER over those 11 2/3 IP), a very high .351 BABIP and a 20.5% HR rate that is over twice as large as his career average.  If you go by the advanced metrics, Price's numbers are much less scary -- the Rays southpaw owns a 4.43 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and a 3.47 SIERA.  Those still aren't quite "elite ace" numbers but Price will very likely be just fine.  There's no need to move him in a panic trade, like, say, dealing Price for Jason Heyward and Jon Niese like one guy in one of my leagues did two weeks ago.  Man, I sure wish I was the lucky manager who snagged Price in that deal...oh wait, I WAS.  *self high-five*

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RotoAuthority League Update: Recent Trades

The RotoAuthority League is a highly competitive 12-team fantasy baseball league run by Tim Dierkes. The settings consist of standard 5 X 5 Rotisserie scoring and 23-man lineups along with 3 bench spots. In an effort to keep owners interested as well as to infuse new blood into the league, the teams that finish below 8^th place are kicked out of the league each year. The author of this column just hopes he’s not one of them.

04/25 A Century of Misery trades Shelby Miller to Brewsterville Bruins for Rickie Weeks

OK, I'm a little hesitant to discuss this trade, as the Peanut Gallery thought I got ripped off here. At the very least, I can explain why I made the deal. My middle infield has been a disaster thus far. After losing Jose Reyes for three months and then Erick Aybar for a couple weeks, I was utilizing a combination of the godawful Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis at second base. Granted, Rickie Weeks is off to a miserable start, but I feel second base falls off a cliff after the top ten. Maybe I should have aimed higher given the rising market value of Shelby Miller, but I was content with the deal. The real question here is just how good is Shelby? I'm naturally skeptical of young pitchers, but even I have to admit Miller looks legitimate. I had Weeks projected to be far more valuable in the preseason, so should I really change my opinion based on one month of play? This trade may look awful in October, but I at least filled a positional need. I tip my cap to the Bruins if this deal proves to be a disaster for me.

04/29 Forty 2 Twenty 4 trades Mark Reynolds to Brewsterville Bruins for Joel Hanrahan

It's amazing how quickly player values can change in fantasy baseball. Timing is everything in the art of the deal. Here's a classic example. Two days before this trade, Peter Abraham of Boston.com speculated that Joel Hanrahan would get the closer job back afer returning from the DL. The day after the Bruins dealt away Hanrahan, however, Manager John Farrell announced that Andrew Bailey would remain the closer. So in a matter of hours, Forty 2 Twenty 4 went from acquiring a solid closer to a worthless setup man for the red-hot Mark Reynolds. Funny thing is this story isn't over, as Bailey is now set to undergo an MRI on his bicep. Overall, I like this move to buy high on Reynolds by the Bruins. Sure, he's likely to slow down, but he certainly still provides nice pop. It's tough to blame Forty 2 Twenty 4 too much, though, as the price of a closer is rather inflated in the RotoAuthority League.

04/30 UP trades Josh Hamilton, Jhonny Peralta, and Carlos Marmol to Philly Cheez for Lorenzo Cain, Andrelton Simmons, and Jason Grilli

On paper this looks like a blockbuster, but let's break it down to its crux. Since the trade took place, Philly Cheez has dropped not only Jhonny Peralta but also Carlos Marmol, so clearly this owner made the deal simply to acquire Josh Hamilton. Now here's a player I want no part of going forward. It's been well documented that Hamilton has been swinging at everything in sight this season, and his strikeout to walk ratio has spiked dramatically. There's no denying the talent, but I'm bearish that he'll be able to make an adjustment this season. So what did UP get in return? Well, for one, he got an elite closer in performance but not in name in Jason Grilli. The career path certainly is strange, but Grilli is proving that last year's elite skills were no fluke. In addition, UP received a popular preseason sleeper in Lorenzo Cain. After missing significant time last season, Cain is off to a fast start this year. At the very least, he should be able to produce as a top 50 outfielder with contributions in BA and runs; the total in the SB column will determine if he's a true breakout performer. Finally, to replace Peralta UP acquired Andrelton Simmons. Another player with name value, here's one I don't see the merit in quite yet. Sure, it's delightful to watch him play defense, but from a fantasy perspective I still view him as replacement-level at middle infield in Mixed Leagues.

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Stock Watch: Do You Feel Lucky?

With the season's first month done and played, it's time to take a look at who's hot and cold starts are due to skill (or lack of it), and which are due to luck. A star plagued with a low BABIP makes a great trade target, while a young guy playing over his head is a great player to sell. Below, we'll take a look at some players who should be moving on or off your team.

Trade Targets

B.J. Upton is off to a start as bad as his brother's is good. Always a drag on batting average, he's killing owners like me Adam Dunn-style so far, while putting up little of his trademark power or speed. It's hard to steal bases with a .223 OBP. In fact, he's been so frustrating that I almost put him on the Trade Away list because I've grown to hate seeing his name in my lineup. That's an emotion you can use. His BABIP is a frightening .185, over 100 points below his career norm, much of which can be traced to his eye-popping infield fly rate of 29.6%, well over double his highest full season number. The two options seem to be that he figures out how to cut those popups down, or he's all washed up at age 28. The former seems much more likely.

Will Middlebrooks isn't so bad off as B.J., but he's still dragging averages down with a .198 mark. A .217 BABIP seems to be the problem, while the major change in his batted ball data is that he was a groundball hitter last year and a flyball hitter this year. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, as his six homers will attest. His BABIP ought to normalize, at which point he could be a four-category monster in a heavy lineup. The upside is clear, and the downside is mitigated by the weak and injured status of third basemen around the league.

Gio Gonzalez is a risky trade proposition, as with slightly lowered velocity and a walk rate over 5.00, his troubles haven't been entirely due to luck. His ERA sits at 5.35, but his FIP is better at 4.09, and his xFIP better still at 3.51. So, some bad luck seems to be exacerbating things. With a K/9 over 10.00 and a quality lineup, there's still plenty of upside if you can trade for him at a significantly reduced price.

Clay Buchholz has been almost too good to trade away, but if his owner is looking to sell high, consider being the buyer. His years of sub-mediocrity make him look like a sell target, with his 1.01 ERA, but the underlying story says otherwise. He's got a sparkly 2.26 FIP and a very good 2.99 xFIP, to go with a strikeout rate of 9.47. The indications are that he isn't the same pitcher that has filled Red Sox Nation with disappointment for the last few years. If you're still skeptical, check out this article from Fangraphs. If you're still skeptical after that...um, don't trade for Buchholz, I guess.

Trade Away

Carlos Gomez went from disappointing speedster to power/speed fantasy gold last season, and he's kept it up this year. Owners were bullish on him in drafts, and they've been vindicated so far, as Gomez has delivered five homers and seven steals. His usually low average sits at an impressive .367. Okay, I understate. It's at an unbelievable .367. How'd it get there? Try a .419 BABIP, with help from a line drive percentage up four points from last season. Even if his hit profile has changed (and one month of extra liners doesn't prove much), he hasn't magically transformed into Joey Votto with speed. Deal him, as he could fetch a pretty serious return.

Jay Bruce is the sort of slumping superstar that I would have expected to advise you to trade for...until I looked under his statistical hood. He's got just one homer and 43 strikeouts through 30 games--his HR/FB has cratered to just 4.1%, while his popup rate has more than doubled. Everything seems to be going wrong...except his batting average. It's low--just .258--but actually better than last year. Thanks to a BABIP over 100 points higher than last year, at .388. When the BABIP goes, the results will be horrifying. Exactly what's wrong with Bruce, I couldn't say, but I can say that he's actually been lucky. Trade him while you can.

Matt Kemp is experiencing a power outage of his own, which I worried about before the season. Probably because of his surgically repaired shoulder, things are actually worse than I expected and it looks like a loss of flyball distance  could be the culprit. His batting average is a mediocre .267, buoyed by a fortuitous .351 BABIP. That could easily drop before his shoulder heals, but it's still early enough to recoup a good return for him.

I mentioned Matt Moore as a trade candidate last week, and I'll just back that up now by pointing out that his 4.08 FIP compares unfavorably with his 1.98 ERA.

Pick Up

Brandon McCarthy's ERA sits at a whopping 7.22, but his FIP is just 4.04. A skilled pitcher, he ought to be able to improve on that FIP, let alone the ERA. His ownership rates are just: Y!: 30%/ESPN: 16.5%/CBS: 28%. If his is owned, he makes a sneaky-smart throw in, in a larger deal.

Hector Santiago (Y!: 2%/ESPN: 0.1%/CBS: 8%) briefly closed for the White Sox last year, but now he'll be moving into the rotation. His first start was successful, and, with Gavin Floyd out, we could be seeing lots of the hard-throwing Santiago in the rotation. Very interesting waiver wire opportunity.

Francisco Liriano (Y!: 5%/ESPN: 0.2%/CBS: 25%) has been mowing down the International League for the Indianapolis Indians on his rehab assignment, but he's should be up with the big club again soon. He's got as much upside--and downside--as anyone on the waiver wire.

Chris Tillman (Y!: 17%/ESPN:  2.3%/CBS: 34%) has rattled off three good starts in a row, making four of six. The mere possibility that he's finally harnessing his talent makes him worth a speculative add.

Nick Hundley (Y!: 8%/ESPN: 5.2%/CBS: 23%) is batting over his head, with a .421 BABIP, but he's got three homers and nine doubles. He's shown some power in limited playing time before, and he could be a very useful stopgap option if you're having trouble at catcher. Unlike most such options, he's got a bit of upside.

Domonic Brown (Y!: 24%/ESPN: 22.5%/CBS: 73%) was a hot pick after his torrid spring, but he saw his ownership rates drop after a relatively slow start. Well, he's got five homers and an average that won't kill you--pick him up unless you have a great outfield. Not that you have that option in CBS leagues....

Just Say No

Scott Feldman is a hot pickup lately, after whiffing 12 Padres in a complete game on May 1. It was a truly dominating performance, but remember, it was against the Padres, and his overall game isn't impressive. Stay away.

Ricky Romero once pitched over his head all season and made an All-Star team. Once he was even a pretty decent pitcher. Last year, he was basically the worst starter in the Majors. Nothing about his return to the bigs indicated otherwise. He'll probably get some pickups based on the familiarity of his name alone, but don't get sucked into that. His best-case scenario is no better than being average-ish, without strikeouts. The downside is that he bombs your ratios for several starts and gets sent back to the minors. Nota good bet.

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