Odds and Ends

A few assorted links today...

• Greener On The Other Side has changed its name to Fantasy Phenoms.  Check it out.
• This week's fantasy roundtable was about John Smoltz.

True .300 Hitters

Ron Shandler and Co. have determined that true .300 hitters post a contact rate of 86% or better and a walk rate of 11% or better.  Contact rate is defined as (AB-K)/AB.  For our purposes I'll relax the standards to 85% and 10% and see what we can find.  (Interesting side note, Fantasy Sports Ventures just purchased Baseball HQ for over a million bucks.)

NAME	CR	BB%	AVG
Chipper Jones	91.1%	11.4%	0.418
Lance Berkman	87.8%	13.9%	0.388
Rafael Furcal	88.8%	12.3%	0.366
Albert Pujols	89.9%	22.5%	0.355
Sean Casey	93.1%	10.8%	0.345
Ryan Theriot	89.9%	11.7%	0.336
Conor Jackson	92.3%	10.5%	0.331
Joe Mauer	92.0%	12.4%	0.328
Blake Dewitt	87.4%	10.3%	0.320
Brian Schneider	85.9%	10.3%	0.318
Hideki Matsui	86.3%	10.1%	0.317
Yunel Escobar	85.4%	11.4%	0.313
Brian McCann	91.9%	10.5%	0.309
Derrek Lee	86.0%	10.3%	0.305
Carlos Guillen	85.4%	11.9%	0.292
Skip Schumaker	88.0%	10.7%	0.289
Todd Helton	87.2%	15.8%	0.284
Jacoby Ellsbury	88.9%	13.3%	0.282
Alberto Callaspo	94.1%	12.1%	0.275
Scott Podsednik	85.7%	13.8%	0.265
Gregg Zaun	88.3%	10.8%	0.262
Brian Giles	87.8%	14.9%	0.259
Edwin Encarnacion	85.0%	11.4%	0.259
Frank Catalanotto	86.0%	11.9%	0.256
J.J. Hardy	86.6%	10.5%	0.254
Mark Teixeira	85.2%	12.3%	0.254
Cesar Izturis	94.4%	10.4%	0.250
Rich Aurilia	85.7%	10.1%	0.245
Luis Castillo	89.6%	13.5%	0.245
Mark Ellis	88.2%	10.9%	0.242
Ryan Garko	86.3%	10.3%	0.234
Kevin Millar	85.8%	10.2%	0.230
Alfredo Amezaga	86.7%	10.0%	0.229
Shannon Stewart	88.7%	11.6%	0.227
Josh Bard	86.2%	10.7%	0.216
Scott Hatteberg	88.6%	13.2%	0.205
Chin-lung Hu	87.0%	10.0%	0.204
Doug Mientkiewicz	92.9%	11.1%	0.196
Jason Giambi	85.1%	17.6%	0.188
Maicer Izturis	93.3%	10.6%	0.187
Jamey Carroll	85.2%	10.4%	0.185

You can see many nice buying opportunities here with guys like Encarnacion, Hardy, Teixeira, and Garko.

I'm not seeing much on the sell high side of the ledger.  These guys have CRs below 80% and walk rates below 7% but are hitting at least .287, but I still like most of them:

NAME	CR	BB%	AVG
Greg Dobbs	78.8%	5.3%	0.327
Matt Kemp	72.8%	4.8%	0.309
Jeremy Hermida	76.3%	6.4%	0.298
Clete Thomas	77.0%	4.5%	0.295
Adrian Gonzalez	78.4%	6.8%	0.290
Hunter Pence	77.6%	6.4%	0.287
Ryan Braun	79.9%	4.6%	0.287

Fantasy Baseball Closers Post Updated

The fantasy baseball closers post is updated once again. The situation in Texas is the latest for saves vultures to monitor.

Thoughts On Trade Vetoes

One refreshing aspect of the RotoAuthority League is that owners do not have a chance to vote on other owners' trades.  When did this become the accepted practice?  I find it ridiculous. 

Why should trades be voted on?  Most people will tell you it's to prevent unfair deals from being made.  Are trades really supposed to be fair?  I never give thought to fairness.  I just try to help my own team.  Obviously I am going to have to give up something decent, unless the other owner is...

Dumb.  One apparent reason for vetoes is to prevent dumb owners from being ripped off.  Usually making it a money league with decent stakes takes care of this problem, though.  Otherwise, if you don't want a novice in your league, don't let that person in.  Part of having a novice in the league is that people will try to take advantage of him.  Let's be honest - you're only vetoing that rip-off trade because you didn't think to make the offer.

The one reason I find vetoes acceptable is to prevent collusion.  If you have two brothers in a non-keeper league and the last place brother dumps off all his best players to the first place brother, that's collusion.  That's not cool, though the best solution is just to not have people in the league who would collude.

Say, for the sake of argument, trades need to be fair and veto power is necessary.  How does it make sense that the other ten teams, with an obvious vested interest, are the arbiters?  That'd be like Omar Minaya and Pat Gillick voting down the Braves' Rafael Soriano-Horacio Ramirez swap.  At the very least, appoint someone not in the league.

By the way, why are the players in the league authorities on trade equity?  Can they predict the future?  I have seen way too many trades vetoed because 10 amateurs took a quick glance and saw a "name" player swapped for a less famous guy.  Last year I caused an uproar by trading Jeremy Accardo for Joe Mauer, even though the Accardo side ended up winning the deal.

What are your thoughts on trade vetoes?  Do fantasy baseball trades need to be fair and even?

Cliff Lee For Rafael Furcal?

I am in first place in the RotoAuthority League, but not by much.  Volvo Stationwagons is at 86.5 points; I'm at 90.  My 3.98 ERA ranks fifth; my 1.32 WHIP is sixth.  I'm not running away with pitching, but I decided to take offers for Cliff Lee anyway.  I figured he has nowhere to go but down (though I do not think he's a fluke).  Lee has been historically great this season.  His season reminds me of Dontrelle Willis' 2005.

The fourth-place team, Los Genius, came in with an offer of recently DL'd shortstop Rafael Furcal.  Los Genius is last in ERA and WHIP but in fourth place overall.  Obviously I am a huge Furcal fan and he is having a monster contract year.  I have shopped Lee in a couple of leagues and could not find any believers - even an offer of Lee for Adrian Beltre was rejected.  Anyway, I jumped on the offer of Furcal. 

My team is currently employing Julio Lugo at the MI position in a desperate plea for steals.  I am also weak at 2B with Mark DeRosa, though my shortstop is Michael Young.  My offense ranks first or second in all categories except steals, where I am tied for seventh.  Based on the distribution of steals I feel that second place is within reach in the category.

I have created a new hole in starting pitching, as my rotation now consists of Ian Snell, Todd Wellemeyer, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, and Dan Haren.  I figure it'll be a lot easier to find a decent starter within the next month than it will be to find a strong middle infielder.

What do you think about this trade?

A Look At Chris Iannetta

Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta was considered a nice sleeper heading into the 2007 season.  While he did draw quite a few walks, his '07 performance was a fantasy disappointment.  The Rockies were also disillusioned, as they signed Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal.

It often happens that a sleeper breaks out one year later than we'd expected.  Iannetta is off to a blazing start, though it's only been 58 ABs.  Iannetta has become the starter, though, so I'll assume he plays in another 95 games and ends up with 375 ABs.

Using only his '08 performance, we'd look for a .328-19-91-52-0 line from Iannetta in those 375 ABs.  That'd be worth $21 and make him a top five catcher.  Obviously Iannetta is a bit over his head.

Coming into this season I had him at .268-11-50-52-1 if he were to get 375 ABs.  That'd be worth $5.30, more than Jason Varitek or Mike Napoli.  If Iannetta simply plays to my projection from here on out, he'll finish at .277-13-56-52-1, a performance worth roughly $8.  This puts him in the range of Bengie Molina, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski, and Ivan Rodriguez.  It seems that Iannetta is a top ten catcher, but we have only 66 plate appearances with which to judge his possible breakout. 

I'd rather have Iannetta than Paul Bako, but I prefer other breakout types like Ryan Doumit or Chris Snyder.  And keep an eye on Dioner Navarro.

BABIP, Anyone?

Time for another installment of everyone's favorite BABIP, Anyone? series.  Here we look at pitchers with abnormal batting averages on balls in play.  I've incorporated ISO into the chart as well.  ISO, or Isolated Power, is calculated as SLG-BA.  It is a measure of extra-base hits.  League average is right around .150 in both leagues.

The following starters have BABIPs below .240.  All else being equal, their WHIPs should rise.  Considering moving guys with K/BBs below 2.0 (with a few exceptions).

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Erik Bedard	0.184	1.79	0.138	1.99	1.07
Shaun Marcum	0.185	2.75	0.139	2.59	0.90
Gavin Floyd	0.189	0.95	0.172	3.32	1.13
Ryan Dempster	0.195	1.57	0.070	2.76	1.06
Scott Olsen	0.196	1.14	0.124	2.63	1.08
Renyel Pinto	0.197	1.33	0.048	0.70	1.01
Daisuke Matsuzaka	0.205	1.33	0.109	2.45	1.22
Armando Galarraga	0.205	2.33	0.159	3.07	0.99
Cliff Lee	0.212	19.50	0.046	0.81	0.60
Daniel Cabrera	0.221	1.42	0.124	3.54	1.20
Matt Albers	0.228	1.63	0.032	2.39	1.03
Ben Sheets	0.228	3.17	0.130	2.53	0.97
Adam Wainwright	0.230	3.00	0.138	2.25	0.96
Tim Redding	0.231	1.67	0.145	3.83	1.19
Greg Smith	0.235	2.33	0.138	3.00	1.07
Brandon Webb	0.238	2.56	0.064	2.41	1.00
Zack Greinke	0.239	3.00	0.142	1.80	1.02

Conversely, these pitchers have BABIPs over .350 and should see their WHIPs decrease.  There are a host of solid buying opportunities here.

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Andrew Miller	0.397	1.81	0.164	6.52	1.81
Dustin Moseley	0.396	1.75	0.205	7.85	1.92
Bronson Arroyo	0.383	2.53	0.235	7.14	1.71
C.C. Sabathia	0.379	2.30	0.185	6.55	1.68
Miguel Batista	0.373	1.19	0.119	5.58	1.88
Chad Billingsley	0.371	2.09	0.122	4.89	1.58
Mike Pelfrey	0.371	0.93	0.120	4.86	1.83
Matt Chico	0.366	1.69	0.212	6.42	1.75
Jason Marquis	0.364	1.40	0.157	5.08	1.72
Manny Parra	0.363	1.30	0.144	5.79	1.87
Edgar G Gonzalez	0.362	1.00	0.171	6.60	1.87
Chris Sampson	0.361	1.67	0.162	6.27	1.64
Ubaldo Jimenez	0.358	1.36	0.112	5.53	1.82
Mark Buehrle	0.353	2.45	0.156